In a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College of respondents who indicated they intend to vote in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, slightly more than half selected an option other than Trump.
Trump had the support of 49 percent of respondents. It’s striking for that number to be from inside the GOP — not across the general electorate, or in some battleground state, but within the Republican Party. A full 25 percent of respondents indicated support for Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis. Neither Trump nor DeSantis have formally confirmed they’ll run in the 2024 primary, but Trump seems all-but-certain to do so, and DeSantis is broadly seen as a potential contender. No other candidate hit double-digit levels of support in the poll.
A full 64 percent of poll participants under 35 years old and 65 percent of respondents with at least a college degree indicated they’d vote against Trump in the GOP primary. Nearly 20 percent of poll participants reflected by these numbers also indicated they believed Trump “went so far that he threatened American democracy” with his behavior on January 6. These numbers specifically reflect the respondents who indicated they’d vote in the upcoming GOP primary. On January 6, Trump hoped to pressure then-VP Mike Pence into taking steps to block the certification in Congress of Biden’s election victory, although the vice president doesn’t possess the legally recognized power to do so. Trump also, of course, incited the attack on the Capitol and had to be metaphorically cornered into taking any kind of step to push back on it.
A full 16 percent of Republicans indicated that, if Trump wins the 2024 nomination, “they would support Mr. Biden, would back a third-party candidate, wouldn’t vote at all or remained unsure what they would do,” as The New York Times explained it. The referenced Republicans were apparently surveyed in the same polling operation resulting in the unfavorable primary numbers for Trump. Notably, just 3 percent of Republicans indicated they viewed election integrity as the biggest problem facing the United States. Just 3 percent! In line with that, it seems safe to assume that a Trump campaign in 2024 based in large part on election-related conspiracy theories and similar nonsense wouldn’t attract substantial amounts of support in connection to those lies. The broader survey, including Republicans and those outside the party, also asked respondents whether they’d support Trump or Biden in a potential rematch in 2024, and 44 percent chose Biden, while 41 percent backed Trump.
Trump flipped out on Tuesday after the numbers from The New York Times came out. “The failing New York Times is down 40% year-to-date because they are Fake News,” Trump ranted. He’s referencing their stock price, although the entire stock market has lost significant amounts of value this year. He added: “Their reporters are dishonest, and their front page has become a work of total fiction, not news. They hate our Country, and they hate reporting the truth, which is why America is not respected and our Nation has never been weaker… The New York Times will continue to decline because people no longer believe their reporting is even close to being true. Fake polls, phony stories, and made up quotes—they are a disgrace to journalism and have set it back many many years. THE NEW YORK TIMES IS TRULY THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!” Obviously, that is all nonsense.
