Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) is leading Trump-endorsed Republican J.D. Vance by five percent in a new poll of the key Ohio Senate race in which the pair are facing off.
The new survey has the advocacy organization Innovation Ohio behind it and was conducted online from July 5 to July 10 on the GrowProgress platform. In the results, 46 percent of the respondents went for Ryan, while 41 percent supported Vance — whose campaign is far behind Ryan’s in fundraising, although the Republican is receiving significant levels of outside support from interests including a super PAC where billionaire Peter Thiel has donated $15 million and counting. In three successive polls conducted by the same source, Vance’s level of support didn’t change. The level of voters identifying themselves as undecided slightly fell over time, reaching 13 percent in the new poll after standing at 15 percent in two prior surveys. Apparently, 10 percent of Republicans in the new poll indicated support for Ryan.
“While Congressman Ryan consolidates support with key demographics, MAGA Republican JD Vance is losing ground and in the hole,” Innovation Ohio President Desiree Tims remarked this week. “Not only is Vance failing to gain any ground among Ohio voters over the last three months, his campaign is asking out-of-state donors to bail out his campaign debt. That’s not how you win in Ohio.” In the new Innovation Ohio survey, Ryan led by substantial margins among women, Black voters, respondents under the age of 55, and poll participants with a four-year college degree or a higher level of education. The poll asked questions of a little over 2,000 registered voters. Other recent polling also found Ryan leading. In the second quarter of this year, the Ryan campaign raised $9.1 million, with support from almost 90,000 new donors. In sharp contrast, Vance’s campaign raised a little over a million in the same period.
Democrats have significant advantages in fundraising across the United States. Small-dollar donations submitted online in June through the Democratic Party-aligned platform ActBlue in support of a variety of figures far surpassed the donations given in June through WinRed, the online platform Republicans rely on for web-based fundraising. In June, the WinRed fundraising total from small-dollar donations, meaning those under $200, was $26.6 million. There were 4 million ActBlue donations of the small-dollar variety in June, which brought in over $64 million. In specific races, including Senate contests in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, Democrats are substantially out-raising Republican counterparts in key categories. In Arizona, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has raised a staggering total of nearly $23 million in small-dollar donations this cycle — and the combined total of three of the top candidates in the GOP primary to challenge him (including one, extremist Blake Masters, who Trump backs) is under $2 million.
In another notable sign of faltering GOP fortunes, support for the party fell by 15 percent among voters 65 and older in CNN polling over recent months. It’s not clear what exactly might have driven such a thing, but it’s worth noting that it’s in the time between two polls showing the drop when the House committee investigating the Capitol riot held most of its public hearings outlining its findings. More riot panel hearings are coming later.
Ryan (D) 46% (+5)
Vance (R) 41%@GrowProgress (D)— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 22, 2022
Image: Gage Skidmore/ Creative Commons
