Latest Arizona Senate Polling Has Democrats Smiling Wide

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Blake Masters, a high-profile contender in the ongoing GOP primary for Senate in Arizona who has the support of former President Donald Trump, is losing by 12 percent to incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly in a new poll.

The survey was conducted by Beacon Research for the Environmental Voter Project. Among likely Arizona voters participating in the poll and asked about the hypothetical general election match-up, Kelly garnered 51 percent of the support, and Masters got 39 percent. Among all voters, the lead for Kelly was even larger, with 49 percent backing him while Masters got just 34 percent — meaning there was a gulf of 15 percentage points between the two candidates. Even if these exact numbers don’t precisely match the eventual outcome of the general election for Senate in Arizona (assuming Masters wins the primary), it nonetheless seems clear Kelly is in the stronger position.

Kelly also led against other potential GOP general election challengers, including Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich. Among all voters, Kelly got 49 percent compared to Brnovich’s 35 percent. Among just likely voters, Kelly had the support of 51 percent, while Brnovich got 40 percent. Kelly also led potential GOP general election challenger Jim Lamon by 10 percent among likely voters. Other polling from the Environmental Voter Project also found other Dem Senate candidates leading their Republican opponents. Among likely voters in Georgia, incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock had 48 percent of the support, while Republican Herschel Walker — who has Trump’s backing and already won the relevant primary without much substantial competition — had 43 percent of the support. Fox News polling released this week also found Warnock leading; specifically, he was up by four percent in their numbers.

Another key Senate race is unfolding in Pennsylvania, where Democrat and current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is hoping to take over the post currently held by retiring GOP’er Pat Toomey. Fox polling out this week found Fetterman up by 11 percent — and polling from the Environmental Voter Project found the same leading margin for him among likely voters. Fetterman got half of likely voters in the environmental group’s polling, while Trump-backed Republican opponent Mehmet Oz had 39 percent. Oz already won his primary. Trump recently touted Masters’s relative success in the ongoing Republican primary race for Senate in Arizona: “Blake Masters in Arizona, was in third place, but because I Endorsed him, he is now leading by big numbers,” he complained after an opinion piece went up in The New York Times discussing what basically amounted to Trump’s faltering political brand. Trump also recently showed up in Arizona to campaign for Masters.

In Trump’s original primary season endorsement for Masters, he said, in part: “Blake is Strong on Border Security, in particular, the disastrous Southern Border where people are pouring into the U.S. by the millions, and destroying our Country. Just two years ago, with the help of the Wall, we had the Strongest Border in the history of our Country, and now we have the weakest—Blake will turn that around quickly.” Obviously, that’s nonsensical: does Trump think Biden visited the southern border himself and tore down the “wall”? Of course, that exact scenario wouldn’t be exactly what Trump might suggest — the point is that it’s just ridiculous. The rhetoric also poses a continued threat to immigrants by characterizing people “pouring into the U.S.” as “destroying our Country,” which is disturbingly unrepresentative of actual reality and brazenly racist.