Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) is leading Republican general election challenger and Trump endorsement-recipient J.D. Vance by 9 percent in a new poll of the Ohio Senate race in which the two are running.
The poll was conducted by Center Street PAC. Ryan brought in 43 percent of the support, while Vance scored just 34 percent of the support among overall respondents. A full 23 percent indicated that they were undecided, although it seems clear Ryan is in a stronger campaigning position as the race moves forward. Among just likely voters surveyed in this new poll, Ryan also led by 9 percent, and the percentage of respondents indicating they were undecided was smaller. Ryan got 49 percent of likely voters, Vance garnered 40 percent, and there were 11 percent who indicated an undecided stance. Over one-third of the respondents without a party affiliation who were questioned in the poll indicated they were undecided, suggesting the next stages of the race and how the two major party candidates campaign will significantly impact the eventual outcome. Voters’ minds aren’t all made up yet.
Ryan led among the unaffiliated voters who already had a preference, with 37 percent of that group’s support, compared to 26 percent who went with Vance. Smaller but significant portions of both Democrats and Republicans indicated they were undecided in the Ohio Senate race: for Republicans, that level was 19 percent, and for Democrats, it was 12 percent. Ryan, meanwhile, also led by a significant margin among just registered voters surveyed in the poll, bringing in 46 percent of the support compared to Vance’s 34 percent — meaning he was 12 percentage points ahead with that particular group. In the weighted average from FiveThirtyEight of polls in the Ohio Senate race, Ryan was out ahead of Vance by over four percent as of this Saturday, and the forecast from FiveThirtyEight for the Ohio Senate race is showing gradually increasing chances of victory for Ryan. As of that same point, Ryan held a 24-in-100 chance of winning, according to the “deluxe” version of the site’s calculations that factored in polling, specific trends, and more.
Ryan’s Senate campaign is substantially out-raising Vance. Ryan’s campaign raised $9.1 million in the second quarter of this year — and the Vance campaign raised barely over $1 million. That’s obviously a large chasm in donor support. Other campaign-affiliated entities tied to Vance brought in more money, bringing the candidate’s second-quarter total to over $2.3 million — which is still far below Ryan’s total just at his campaign itself. Vance’s campaign has benefited from outside support including a super PAC where billionaire Peter Thiel has donated over $15 million. Thiel also supported Blake Masters, the Trump-endorsed Arizona Senate candidate who recently won the GOP Senate nomination in that state. Flipping just one seat either direction in this fall’s elections could decide which party controls the Senate, since it’s currently 50-50.
Image: Gage Skidmore/ Creative Commons