Latest Senate Midterm Polling Has Democrats Smiling Wide

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Rep. Tim Ryan (R-Ohio) is 11 percent ahead of J.D. Vance among likely voters in new polling out of Ohio from Center Street PAC. The polling measures voters’ perspectives in the Senate race in which Ryan and Vance, a Trump endorsement recipient, are competing.

Ryan got 49 percent of the support, while Vance — who Ryan’s campaign is significantly out-raising — had 38 percent. Overall, 12 percent of likely voters indicated they were undecided. Other metrics also show Ryan’s significant campaign advantages: 23 percent of respondents indicated a “somewhat” or “very” unfavorable view of Ryan, but a full 46 percent of what appears to be overall voters held unfavorable perspectives on Vance. In addition, Ryan led in the new Center Street PAC polling among independents by 21 percentage points, with 39 percent of the support compared to just 17 percent for Vance in that group. That’s a significant jump over Ryan’s July leading margin of 8 percent among independents. As for Vance, just 62 percent of Republicans indicated a favorable view of him in Center Street PAC’s August survey, according to the organization.

As Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta explained the race, “These results suggest two things: Ryan’s early jump in investment has significantly improved his standing with Ohio voters. Ryan still has some work to do in converting marginal voters to full support, but based on the growth we see in Ryan’s awareness and favorability, he seems to be effectively executing his plan.” These new numbers from Center Street PAC are some of the best seen so far by the Ryan campaign, although the Democratic contender leads throughout recent polling. A Ryan-sponsored poll from late July found him 3 percent ahead of Vance. In other recent Senate polling, there’s more good news for Democrats. In Florida polling from a pair of Democratic-leaning groups, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) was tied with expected general election challenger Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.).

One of the swing state Senate races best for Democrats is no doubt in Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman — the Democratic pick and current lieutenant governor of the state — is leading Trump endorsee Mehmet Oz by double-digits in the weighted average from FiveThirtyEight of polling in the race. Voters are less enthusiastic about Oz than they are for Fetterman: a full 68 percent of Fetterman’s supporters in recent polling indicated they “enthusiastically” backed him. For Oz, just 35 percent of his supporters shared the same sentiment about their preferred candidate. There was a similar enthusiasm gap in the Georgia Senate race between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, another candidate backed by Trump.

As reported on this site, a full 69 percent of Warnock’s supporters in Georgia expressed enthusiasm about their candidate, while just 51 percent of Walker’s backers said the same regarding the GOP contender. A full 31 percent of Walker’s supporters in the Fox poll indicated “reservations” about their support for the Trump-backed candidate. Only 18 percent of Warnock’s supporters also indicated so-called reservations in the context of their Senate preference. These numbers — reflecting enthusiasm in both Pennsylvania and Georgia — all come from Fox polling.