The 2022 midterm elections should have been an easy win for Republicans, who predicted a “red wave” with Democratic President Joe Biden in the White House. Polls show, however, that a path to victory in taking back the House may be more difficult than the GOP originally thought.
Although polls still show the GOP likely taking back the House in November, Democrats hold a nine-seat majority currently with the GOP originally expected to win between 15 to 30 seats. Any significant shortage in wins beyond that could leave Republicans short the dominant number they need in Congress. On Thursday, the Cook Political Report moved five House races predicting Republican wins to Democratic wins.
According to The Hill:
‘Last week, a separate Cook Political Report analysis said Republicans still look like the favorites to win control of the House in the midterm elections. But the publication revised its forecast down from Republicans winning 15 to 30 seats to winning 10 to 20 seats.’
AZ – 4th:
Stanton (D): 46%
Cooper (R): 39%
Schrier (D): 47%
Larkin (R): 43%
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) August 19, 2022
One of those races is between GOP candidate Sarah Palin and Democrat Mary Peltola in Alaska, who just this week beat Palin in a special election for their district. After that win, Cook Political Report began projecting that Peltola will win it in the regular election in November.
Another is between Democrat Rep. Greg Stanton against Republican Kelly Cooper in Arizona, who is endorsed by far-right election denier Kari Lake, a gubernatorial candidate supported by Donald Trump.
‘Cooper, a Marine veteran who owns BKD’s Backyard sports bar and has questioned the integrity of the 2020 election, might be too far right for this left-trending, Biden +10 Tempe seat’
DNC member Rob Zimmerman is leading the field comfortably in NY-03 with early numbers out of Queens. Josh Lafazan, endorsed by Suozzi, is in fourth at the moment. pic.twitter.com/Dw2GCRz0gW
— Harrison Lavelle (@HWLavelleMaps) August 24, 2022
Democratic National Committee member Rob Zimmerman will face off against Republican George Santos, whose recent poll numbers show the Democrati with
‘In the open Long Island seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who unsuccessfully ran for governor, Democratic National Committee member Rob Zimmerman will face Republican George Santos.’
Abigail Spanberger (D-inc) 46% (+5)
Yesli Vega (R) 41%
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 17, 2022
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is racing ahead of Republican Yesil Vega after a controversy in which Vega supported the idea that many women need abortion services as the result of rape, agreeing that it is more difficult for a woman to be impregnated during a rape, a notion with no basis in fact.
‘An audio recording reported by Axios in which Vega expresses openness to the idea that it might be harder for women to get pregnant after rape, remarks that came just as the abortion issue was heating up, was thought to be a major help to Spanberger, who also holds a large financial edge.’
Hines (R) 44% (+5)
Nickel (D) 39%
Stanton (D-inc) 46% (+7)
Cooper (R) 39%
Schrier (D-inc) 47% (+4)
Larkin (R) 43%
Scheller (R) 47% (+4)
Wild (D-inc) 43%
Parrott (R) 45% (+2)
Trone (D-Inc) 43%
Horsford (D-inc) 43% (=)
Peters (R) 43%
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 18, 2022
Finally, Democrat Rep. David Trone faces Republican State Delegate Neil Parrott in Maryland in a district Democrats won by nearly twenty points in 2020.
Cook Political Report senior editor Dave Wasserman writes that:
‘Any Republican scenario for ousting Trone likely involved a Larry Hogan-esque performance in the governor’s race at the top of the ticket. But that went out the window when state Del. Dan Cox, whom Hogan has called ‘not, in my opinion, mentally stable,’ won the GOP primary.’
To keep the House, Democrats need to win about 2/3 of the 85 House seats Cook rates as competitive.
In other words, Democrats would have to win ALL of the likely D, lean D, and tossup D seats, plus most of the tossup R seats.
That's still a long shot.https://t.co/30YnClcQIO
— David Rosen (@firstpersonpol) August 25, 2022