New polling from a Phoenix-area Fox affiliate shows Democrats leading by a substantial margin in Arizona’s ongoing U.S. Senate race, which pits incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly against Trump-endorsed Republican challenger Blake Masters.
Holding the Arizona Senate seat would open up opportunities for Democrats expanding their U.S. Senate majority elsewhere, in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where recent polling shows positive signs for the Democratic contenders running in both states. In Arizona, the new polling, which was conducted for Fox 10 by the polling firm InsiderAdvantage, shows Kelly with 45 percent of the support and Masters with 39 percent. A full 12 percent of respondents indicated they either were undecided or didn’t have an opinion. The same set of polling also featured results for the ongoing governor’s race in the state, and those numbers were closer. Democratic contender Katie Hobbs, who is currently the Arizona Secretary of State, nabbed 44 percent of the overall support, while Trump-backed GOP challenger Kari Lake got 43 percent.
In that race, about one-tenth of respondents indicated they either were undecided or had no opinion. Winning Arizona’s governorship is also broadly important for the future of democracy. After the 2020 presidential election, outgoing Republican Governor Doug Ducey, who was provided a role in certifying the results by the legal standards governing the process, faced intense pressure to essentially upend the certification. Ducey, like fellow swing state Republican Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia, refused to go along with what Trump and his allies wanted, but what if someone more interested in conspiracy theories takes over? Lake was already one of those behind a failed lawsuit seeking to force Arizona officials to count the state’s ballots this year by hand instead of using tabulation machines. Pillow mogul-turned-conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell said he poured half a million dollars into supporting that lawsuit. None of these details provide promising signs about what a Lake governorship might entail.
Meanwhile, if Democrats add to their Senate majority by two, the party could obtain the level of support needed for making changes to the filibuster rules allowing for achieving certain progress on a simple majority basis. “Look, my friends, we offer a starkly different version and vision of this country — a vision of a better America that’s within our reach, that’s within our hands if we just vote,” President Joe Biden said in a recent rally speech. “If we elect two more senators, [and if] we keep the House… Folks, look, we’ll codify Roe v. Wade. We’ll ban assault weapons. We’ll protect Social Security and Medicare. We’ll pass universal pre-K. We’ll restore the Childcare Tax Credit. We’ll protect voting rights. We’ll pass election reform and make sure no one — no one — ever has the opportunity to steal an election again.”