Since July, the overall level of public approval for President Joe Biden’s job performance is up by nine percent, per AP-NORC polling, which is from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (NORC is a University of Chicago institution.)
The new polling was conducted from September 9 to September 12, and it reflects the responses of a little over 1,000 U.S. adults. In the September numbers, 45 percent of overall respondents indicated they approved of Biden’s job performance, while 53 percent shared disapproval. In July, Biden’s overall approval stood at 36 percent. Since that point, Biden’s job approval among Republicans grew by five percentage points, but his approval among Democrats grew even more, by a full 13 percent. The numbers suggest that recent policy successes for Biden and Democratic leaders in Congress, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the recently unveiled plan for the cancellation of a substantial portion of student debt, are boosting Democratic voters’ perceptions of those in power.
Across all polling from this source, July was the lowest point for Democrats’ approval of Biden’s job performance in office. Approval for Biden’s job performance among independents is also up by 11 percent since July, according to AP-NORC polling. (The numbers now place it at 36 percent.) Biden’s average level of public approval for his job performance is 42.3 percent as of Thursday afternoon, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. An improving public perception of Biden’s administration — and Dems in Congress — could significantly boost Democrats’ prospects in the midterms, in which forecasters estimate Democrats already have a good chance of holding onto the Senate but a more difficult path towards retaining control of the House.
Democrats seem especially likely to flip at least one Senate seat: the Pennsylvania post currently held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. GOP pick Mehmet Oz has not led in a single major poll that was publicly released since the general election season began, and Democratic contender John Fetterman — whose campaign leads Oz in fundraising — often sees substantial leads in surveys. Elsewhere, polling from swing states including Georgia and Wisconsin is more mixed. Arizona polling, however, suggests Democrats will hold that state’s Senate seat currently occupied by Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who is running for re-election against Trump-backed challenger Blake Masters.
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