Those proclaiming an imminent “red wave” might need to rethink their predictions.
New polling from The New York Times and Siena College found Biden leading by three percent on the national level when pitted against Donald Trump for a potential rematch in the 2024 presidential race. In the results, Biden nabbed 45 percent of the support, and Trump had 42 percent. That’s a little under the national margin with which Biden finished in the 2020 presidential race, although polling is obviously inherently imperfect, no matter how close to the final results the numbers land. Trump hasn’t formally confirmed he will be running for the presidency again in the next election, but he has made numerous indications that such is precisely where he’s heading. These indications include his repeated references to what he would do — a list including prospective pardons for Capitol riot participants — if elected to the presidency again.
In the new polling from the Times and Siena College, Dems also saw a slight lead of two percent on the question of which major party’s candidate voters would back in this year’s House elections. Recent polling on the same question from Fox worked out to a GOP gain in the chamber of about one seat, according to the right-wing outlet — which isn’t enough to hand control of the House to the party, since Dems are presently nine seats ahead of the GOP in the chamber (thanks to Alaska and Mary Peltola). On a related question (approval for Biden’s job performance by members of the public), the Times polling found a trend showing up elsewhere: Democratic opinions of the president’s job performance are rising, driving an overall boost. In Times polling from July, 70 percent of Democrats approved of Biden’s job performance, and in the new numbers, it’s 83 percent — a substantial jump.
Increasing levels of satisfaction with the direction the White House is taking could motivate Democratic voters to turn out in this year’s high-stakes elections. Many are obviously paying close attention. It was just recently that, among other developments, the Inflation Reduction Act — containing huge investments in fighting climate change, alongside other initiatives — was enacted. Democrats, meanwhile, are already broadly favored (although definitely not certain) to hold onto the Senate.
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