New Midterm Polling Shows Clear Path For Dems To Win Congress

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New Congressional polling from CBS shows the Republican Party still losing ground ahead of the November elections for Congress.

The outlet’s projections put the composition of the House after the midterms at 223 seats for Republicans and 212 for Democrats, which would leave the GOP in control of the chamber — but the margin of error that the outlet provided for these numbers shows the race for controlling the House basically tied, with Republicans potentially losing. (The margin is +/- 13 seats.) One of the key issues that the outlet identifies as boosting electoral prospects for Democrats is abortion. Democrats, after all, are (generally speaking) the ones looking to protect access to reproductive healthcare, which many Americans support. Among registered voters, 43 percent said that the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade makes them more likely to vote for Democrats. Just 26 percent said it made them more likely to back Republicans, with 31 percent identifying no change.

Democrats’ lead on this issue is larger among likely voters, although the data point is formulated differently. Among those who identified abortion as very important, 60 percent were backing the party, compared to 31 percent supporting the Republican candidate. Almost three-fourths (71 percent) of women from the pool of registered voters who participated in the CBS polling said abortion is a critical issue in determining their vote, indicating that a candidate must agree with them on the subject before getting their support. Democratic candidates are keying into this level of interest from the public in finding candidates who support reproductive rights (although some of those looking for a candidate in agreement might, of course, want someone in favor of restrictions). A full 83 percent of likely voters who identified abortion as very important added they feel Democratic candidates are talking about their ambitions to safeguard it.

Just 30 percent of registered voters said they would support a national abortion ban, while 55 percent said they would back a Congressional initiative allowing abortion. (Both hypothetical measures would presumably come with various exceptions and specifications — the questions didn’t specify the nature of the proposals in detail.) In overall numbers, Republicans had a slight edge, but it wasn’t overwhelmingly significant. The race — as the forecasts suggested — was basically tied, with 46 percent of likely voters in favor of the GOP when asked which party would receive their support in this year’s House races and 45 percent for the Democrats. Five percent were unsure.

Meanwhile, Biden’s level of approval among the general public remains higher than it was in recent months, which — while still not in the range seen in earlier stages of his presidency — suggests opinions on the president won’t be an overwhelmingly negative factor against Democrats this year. The portions of likely voters who said their votes in the Congressional elections would be to oppose Biden and to oppose Trump were close. (Biden’s opposition was 38 percent, and Trump’s was 32 percent.) More said their votes would be about supporting Biden than those saying so of Trump, so Biden’s base of support is higher on this question.

Image: Gage Skidmore/ Creative Commons