New Fox News polling conducted by a bipartisan team including Beacon Research and Shaw & Company that measured voters’ opinions in Arizona found Democratic gubernatorial contender and current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs with a slim lead in her state’s governor’s race.
Hobbs is running against Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake for the governorship outgoing GOP’er Doug Ducey is vacating. In 2020, Arizona — where Joe Biden was victorious — was a site of particularly contentious face-offs after the election over the results, and if Lake wins, Trump-aligned Republican control of the state’s chief executive position could threaten election security. Under the rules in place for the 2020 election that presumably linger at least as long as Congress delays passing proposed reforms to the Electoral Count Act, the governor has a role in certifying the state’s presidential election results. What if Trump runs again, loses Arizona again, and Lake, as governor, refuses to agree to certifying the outcome? Trump and his allies highlighted and exploited numerous vulnerable points of the procedures for handling election results, and it could happen again.
Hobbs is leading Lake by one percent in the Fox polling, with 44 percent of registered voters’ support to Lake’s 43 percent. Among voters who rated themselves as most certain to vote, Lake led by one percent, with 46 percent to 45 percent for Hobbs. Both margins are obviously within the poll’s margin of error. The Democratic contender held a higher overall lead in Fox’s polling from August, when she was up by three percent. In office, Hobbs has established herself as a voice for election integrity, including amid a court challenge in which Lake herself — alongside Republican Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem — was on the other side. Lake and Finchem wanted ballots in this year’s Arizona elections tabulated by hand amid continuing conspiratorial concerns about the security of election machines, which numerous analyses confirm are broadly secure. Lake and Finchem ultimately failed.
“Another win for Arizona’s elections,” Hobbs said after the defeat. “Voters can have confidence that their vote counts and that Arizona’s procedures are accurate and secure- this lawsuit merely perpetuated false information about elections administration.” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is running for re-election against Trump-backed Republican challenger Blake Masters, did better in Fox’s polling, with an overall six percent lead, although a full 15 percent said they were undecided, picked another candidate, or indicated they wouldn’t vote. Masters hasn’t led in a single major poll released publicly since Arizona’s general election season began, according to FiveThirtyEight, an elections data site.