Despite interest from high-dollar GOP donor Peter Thiel in the Arizona Senate race, Republican candidate Blake Masters, who used to work at a Thiel-tied company, is still losing according to polling, and it’s not overly close. Masters is running against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is serving for the last two years of the final term of the late Sen. John McCain (R).
Kelly would secure a full term of six years if he is successful in November. In new polling from OH Predictive Insights, Masters is behind Kelly by 13 percent, with 33 percent of the support, while the incumbent got 46 percent. In these results, Libertarian contender Marc Victor — running in a state historically associated with marginally positive trends for that candidate’s third party — nabbed a full 15 percent of the overall support. Even if he doesn’t land near that portion of the vote in the final results, the distribution of support suggests Victor is essentially drawing votes from Masters, whose supporters seem, per polling, less enthusiastic about their selection on a personal level than those behind Kelly. In recent CBS numbers, half of Kelly’s supporters agreed they support the Democratic candidate because they “like him.” Masters was at 21 percent — a big difference.
Kelly and Masters recently faced each other for a debate. Among other issues under discussion, like election integrity and threats to the same, Kelly pointed to Masters’s opposition to abortion. Just last year, the Republican contender even seemingly referred to abortion as “demonic” and a “religious sacrifice” — something obviously dramatically out of step with the many Americans who polling shows support access to some level of reproductive healthcare, like was in place before the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade this year. Abortion has repeatedly come up at Senate debates in high-profile states this cycle, including Wisconsin and Ohio. In Wisconsin, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, the Democratic pick for Senate, criticized challenger Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for apparently having suggested Wisconsinites move elsewhere if they were at odds with the state’s laws regarding abortion. The Barnes-Johnson race is closer than the Arizona contest, according to available poll numbers.
SCOOP: A new poll from Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights (Oct. 4-6; 674 LVs; +/3.77%) found a surprising result: a surge in support for Libertarian Marc Victor.
Kelly 46 (-1 from Sept.)
Masters 33 (-2)
Victor 15 (+9)
Undecided 6 (-6)https://t.co/JaKCneBOzj— Matt Holt (@mattholt33) October 11, 2022
