In a new Iowa survey conducted by the well-regarded pollster Selzer & Co., Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is less than a margin of error ahead of his Democratic opponent, Mike Franken.
Franken is a veteran who spent nearly four decades in the nation’s military service before previously running in the Democratic primary for Senate in Iowa two years ago. He finished second. In the new poll, Grassley had 46 percent of the support among likely voters, while Franken was at 43 percent. The margin of error for these results, a statistical measurement that reflects potential swings from the reported data, was nearly four percent. Grassley most recently won re-election to the Senate by double digits, finishing 24 percent ahead of his 2016 Democratic challenger. Besides the increasing polarization among voters thanks in large part to the increasingly antagonistic stance of the Republican Party, another relevant factor is Grassley’s age. He is 89 years old, and with terms in the Senate at six years, that puts the expiration date for what could be his next Senate term well into his 90s.
A full 60 percent of likely voters named Grassley’s age as a concern. Even more than a third of Republicans said the same, with 37 percent agreeing. Among overall likely voters, only 34 percent identified Grassley’s age as an asset. The idea with that approach would be that Grassley’s experience makes the longtime Senator adept at securing constituents’ priorities. At a debate, Grassley pointed to his consistently rigorous schedule as ostensible evidence he remains up to the task of serving in the Senate. “I go to bed at nine, get up at four, run two miles, get to the office by six, sometimes a little bit before six,” he claimed. Only one currently serving Senator, California Democrat Dianne Feinstein, is older, and she only leads Grassley in age by under a year. Among overall likely voters, 11 percent said they either would vote for someone else, not vote at all, or were unsure.
A July survey from the same source found Grassley leading by eight percent among likely voters, meaning Franken’s standing is improving. Franken has also boosted his lead among independents by 10 percentage points from his July lead in the group of just one percent. Grassley’s approval is also underwater for the first time ever in polling from this source, with 48 percent disapproving of his job performance and just 44 percent approving. On its own, Grassley’s disapproval is also the highest it has ever been in this pollster’s results. Although the measurements aren’t the same (approval specifically covers job performance), more respondents expressed a favorable view of Franken than an unfavorable one — but a substantial portion also indicated they weren’t sure of their perspective. Franken has faced criticism for the time he spent out of the state in the military, implying the decades in the Armed Forces mean he’s no longer enough of an Iowan to represent the state — or something. “To say that I am no longer an Iowan because I put on our country’s uniform is beyond the pale,” Franken replied to critics.
