Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who is 89 and running for re-election to a stint in the Senate that would conclude well into his 90s, is only three percent ahead of Democratic challenger Michael Franken in another new poll.
Grassley last won re-election in 2016 by a margin of 24 percent, so anything even close to these poll results — which show the same margin as a recent Selzer & Co. poll — would constitute a major shift. In the new poll conducted by Change Research for the Franken campaign, Grassley had 48 percent of the support, and Franken nabbed 45 percent, which is apparently under the survey’s margin of error, which is a statistical measurement that reflects potential swings from the reported data. The poll reflects the responses of likely voters. In the Selzer & Co. poll, it was 46 to 43 percent, with Grassley leading. Change Research polling from last month, which was also done for the Franken campaign, also showed the incumbent Republican leading by single digits. Grassley’s late September lead was five percent, although other recent polling, including a survey from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has placed Grassley ahead by double digits.
Significant numbers of respondents expressed concerns about Grassley’s age in the Selzer & Co. poll. As previously reported on this site, a full 60 percent of likely voters named Grassley’s age as a concern, and more than a third of Republicans even said the same, with 37 percent agreeing. Among overall likely voters, only 34 percent identified Grassley’s age as an asset. The idea with that approach would be that Grassley’s experience makes the longtime Senator adept at securing constituents’ priorities. At a debate, Grassley pointed to his consistently rigorous schedule as ostensible evidence he remains up to the task of working in the Senate. “I go to bed at nine, get up at four, run two miles, get to the office by six, sometimes a little bit before six,” he said.
The portion of the public expressing a generally positive view of Grassley is lower than years-past levels. In the Change Research survey, 49 percent of likely voters expressed an unfavorable view of Grassley, which is similar to the 48 percent sharing disapproval of his job performance in Selzer’s polling. The Senator’s disapproval was the highest ever recorded by Selzer & Co. Franken is a veteran who spent nearly four decades in U.S. military service before returning to Iowa, where he was born, to run in the 2020 Democratic primary to challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R). He lost that year before prevailing in 2022 against former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer. Franken has faced criticism for his time spent away from the state, as though his decades of military service make him insufficiently Iowan — or something. Although Iowa often leans Republican, a Dem winning in a statewide election there isn’t an impossibility. Obama won there — twice. Even with general political trends pointing some particular way, surprises remain a distinct possibility.
