In a new poll measuring voters’ attitudes with just weeks left until Election Day, Democrats are five percent ahead of Republicans among registered voters asked which party they would most likely support in the Congressional races taking place this year.
Democrats secured 47 percent of the support, while Republicans were at 42 percent. Overall, 11 percent of respondents answered either they didn’t know or had no opinion. Democrats led among men, women, and every age group except for those 65 and older. They were three percent behind among voters identified as suburban but 38 percent ahead among those ID’ed as urban. Democrats also led among those identifying their top concern as either health care, Medicare and Social Security, women’s issues, education, or energy. The party slightly led among independents, although the portion of that group declining to back either party’s contender was a percentage point higher. These numbers could reflect a boost in Democratic chances of maintaining control of the House after the midterm elections, where polls and forecasters have pointed to a potential struggle on Election Day, which is in less than two weeks.
An average of generic ballot polling — meaning surveys asking respondents to pick between parties rather than candidates — maintained by the elections data and analytics site FiveThirtyEight is inconclusive, with the GOP in the lead by half a percentage point as of early Wednesday. Democrats led in the average earlier this month. The polls cover House races; it’s easier to conduct Senate surveys naming individual candidates, since there are far fewer of them. There are already worries about the potential direction of a GOP-led House, where Kevin McCarthy potentially taking over the Speaker role could essentially hand the reins of power to Trump cronies. McCarthy has proven more willing than Mitch McConnell to appease Trump. After the Capitol riot, a photo widely circulated showing Kevin meeting with the now former president at his southern Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago. There was no equivalent for McConnell.
Similarly, McCarthy voted against certifying key electoral votes won by Joe Biden, but McConnell did not do so. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has already spoken of a push for an increased profile in a potentially GOP-led House. “I think that to be the best speaker of the House and to please the base, he’s going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway,” Greene said, discussing McCarthy. “And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be very unhappy about it. I think that’s the best way to read that. And that’s not in any way a threat at all. I just think that’s reality.”