In a recently conducted Yahoo News poll done by YouGov, President Joe Biden is leading former President Donald Trump when respondents were asked which they would support in the 2024 presidential race if the two face each other again.
Available info points towards both Biden and Trump leading their respective parties’ presidential tickets in 2024. Biden has expressed an intention to run for re-election, and Trump has nearly done so. He has repeatedly raised the prospect of running for the presidency a third time in his speeches since leaving office. Trump could be avoiding formally announcing a campaign in order to avoid the campaign finance rules associated with running for federal office, and he could also be trying to keep at least some of the spotlight on the Republican candidates running for office this year instead of himself — although the frequency with which he turns his rally appearances on behalf of those candidates into personal grievance sessions suggests the latter scenario would be more of an advisors’ idea than his own push.
In the Yahoo poll, Biden led among women and members of every age group except 45-64. He also led among Black and Hispanic voters, although at least one-fourth of both groups indicated that they weren’t sure. He was 12 percent behind among independents. Among registered voters, Biden was two percent ahead, and he led by six percent among those who weren’t registered. In the poll, 34 percent of respondents named inflation as the most important issue in their considerations of this year’s elections. A full 16 percent named democracy, putting the issue in second, while nine percent selected abortion. Ten percent were unsure. Polling suggests Republicans could secure a broad array of wins in this year’s midterm elections, including securing control of the House — which might lead to Kevin McCarthy taking over as House Speaker. McCarthy has proven more interested in essentially appeasing Trump than the Senate’s Mitch McConnell.
McCarthy was among the many Republicans who voted against certifying key electoral votes Biden won, but McConnell voted for certification. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has also already spoken of a push for power (for herself) in the new Congress should Republicans gain control. Greene at or towards the helm of a high-profile committee, letting her question top officials in the U.S. government and potentially exert personal control over the progression of legislation and the hearings schedule wherever she’s serving — that’s a potentially destabilizing prospect! Polling suggests that if Trump, for some reason, sits out the next presidential election, then Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis would likely be the frontrunner, if he decided to run. During a recent debate in his race for re-election as governor, DeSantis refused to answer his opponent’s question of whether he’d commit to serving the entirety of the next term if he wins, meaning he wouldn’t eliminate the possibility of instead of running for president.