With just one week until a midterm election, President Joe Biden’s approval rating could have significant implications in key races across the country. Any change is expected to have an impact on election results.
— Reuters Politics (@ReutersPolitics) November 2, 2022
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Biden’s approval rating is ticking slightly upward, having risen from 39 to 40 percent over the past week of polling. Although the rise is small, it is a welcome sign for Democrats whose president has served the country during a period marked by rising inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic.
‘Taking office in January 2021 in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, Biden’s term has been marked by the economic scars of the global health crisis, including soaring inflation. This year, his approval rating drifted as low as 36% in May and June.’
Biden's job approval jumps to 48%, according to new polling https://t.co/wmmixQvlZg
— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) October 23, 2022
What these numbers mean for the midterms is up for debate. The Washington Post notes that midterm results for a party can outpace the popularity of its sitting president, just as it did under both President Obama in 2014 and under President Bush in 2006. In general, seriously flawed candidates tend to skew the midterm results away from following the popularity numbers of a president, and candidates like Herschel Walker in Georgia and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania certainly fit that bill.
According to The Washington Post:
‘Some of the biggest overperformances came when Republicans ran flawed candidates — most especially, the two 2012 races featuring GOP nominees Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock.There is some evidence that could be the case in 2022. While their candidates perhaps don’t have the same kind of comments dragging them down as Akin and Mourdock did, polls have almost always shown voters don’t especially like the GOP nominees in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.’
Analysis: New polling shows Democrats running way ahead of President Biden's approval rating, which they'll need to do. But is that feasible — or sustainable? Here's what history and the data suggest. https://t.co/6JynmopExL
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 2, 2022
What will influence the vote most are the concerns on the minds of voters, and more voters say that the economy is guiding them in the ballot box. In 2022, top concerns at the ballot box include inflation, abortion rights, and rising crime rates, although not all voters weigh those issues similarly.
‘In this week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll, about a third of respondents picked the economy as the country’s biggest problem, a much larger share than the one in 10 who picked crime or the end of national abortion rights following the Supreme Court’s June decision.’
Joe Biden Job Approval:
38% approve/59% disapprove (-21)
71% approve/12% disapprove (+59)
46% approve/47% disapprove (-1)
— TheValuesVoter (@TheValuesVoter) November 2, 2022