In recent polling from Quinnipiac University of voters’ stances ahead of the 2024 presidential race, Joe Biden is defeating Donald Trump.
Biden has indicated he intends to run again, although he isn’t really formally campaigning — yet, and Trump has both confirmed he’s running and begun campaigning, although that hasn’t been going as well as he might have wanted, whether that’s in reviews of his performance from, say, New Hampshire GOP Governor Chris Sununu or the decision of past ally Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) to back Nikki Haley instead. In the Qunnipiac numbers, Biden was two percent ahead of Trump overall, with 48 percent of the support compared to Trump’s 46 percent. It’s obviously somewhat difficult to directly apply national polling to the presidential race since it’s really decided state by state, but the numbers show nonetheless positive signs for the Democrats.
The poll reflected the responses of registered voters. Trump was two percentage points ahead among independents and led among respondents aged 35 to 64. Biden actually led by nine percent among respondents 65 and up, a stark difference from the conventional understanding of seniors as voters generally leaning towards the GOP. Biden also led among white women by one percent and among Black and Hispanic respondents overall. Trump is trying to push the predictable narrative that he’s actually in a great place in polling, but that idea just isn’t supported by the facts.
Even in the GOP primary race, Trump had a lead in this new Quinnipiac polling over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in just the single-digits, with 42 percent of the support, while DeSantis got 36 percent with many different candidates listed. DeSantis hasn’t even announced a campaign, so if he really leaned in to going against Trump, could he substantially boost his standing? Haley, who despite announcing a campaign seems unwilling to actually speak negatively of Trump, got five percent.
Trump, in the meantime, continues facing problems. A report from Rolling Stone said insiders around the former president were warning him of what they expected could be criminal charges against his lawyer, Evan Corcoran, who has handled some of his side’s responses in the dispute with the federal government over classified documents from Donald’s time in office. Trump claimed in apparent response what’s basically that obstruction couldn’t be charged without an underlying crime, but it’s unclear that’s actually true. The statutes themselves among those referenced in warrant materials for the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago conducted in the documents probe make no such distinction. Obstructing a federal investigation is itself a serious offense. It’s an obstruction charge, known in what’s basically shorthand as obstruction of an official proceeding, that prosecutors have repeatedly used against Capitol rioters.
