New 2024 presidential election polling from The New York Times and Siena College finds a lead in North Carolina of two percent for Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris over Republican nominee Donald Trump. The latter won the state in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, although his lead narrowed the second time. But in this polling, Harris nabbed 49 percent of the support, with Trump at 47 percent.
That Harris lead was among likely voters and was recorded when poll participants were presented only with Harris and Trump. However, when presidential candidates outside of the major parties were also included, Harris still led among North Carolina respondents by two percentage points. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who is perhaps the most prominent of the candidates outside the major parties in this cycle, got only four percent.
In a polling context, Harris’ lead is on the smaller side and below a measurement known as the margin of error for the registered voters assembled in North Carolina. But of course, if this margin does repeat in the general election, that would mean the state’s electoral votes would go to Harris. It makes no difference if a leading candidate ends up ahead by a margin that’s small or one quite large.
Harris and Trump are apparently set to meet each other on a debate stage next month after Trump got back onboard with plans for a debate hosted by ABC News that was originally set up when this year’s expected Democratic nominee was still Joe Biden, who has since endorsed Harris. And further debates beyond that gathering — including a televised face-off between Harris’ running mate Tim Walz and Trump’s VP pick JD Vance — have been discussed.
Trump, meanwhile, is lashing out. Harris “will abolish private health care, and make California’s ridiculous tax policies the law of the land, meaning EVERY American will be taxed up to 80% of their income!” he claimed on social media on Friday. That is not remotely accurate.
