According to the list of national polls of the 2024 presidential election made available by the elections data website FiveThirtyEight, Democratic contender and current Vice President Kamala Harris has led in a dozen recent polls — and in a thirteenth, she led Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump when the two major party candidates were the only ones named to poll participants. They tied when others were included.
These are all polls at the national level, and those 13 polls account for most of the most recent 16 surveys cataloged by that website. A Fox News survey in which Trump only led — by one percent — when only he and Harris were named for poll respondents was one of the only bright spots for the Republican across the selection of data.
Harris’ own leads aren’t overwhelming, and she’s talked about wanting to stick to the work of campaigning rather than placing too much emphasis on the latest survey data. But a selection of it even has her outperforming the national margin by which President Joe Biden won in 2020. Outward Intelligence polling found Harris up over Trump by six percent, both with and without any contender from outside the major parties, all of whom seem likely to get rather small shares of the national popular vote, considering precedent from recent elections.
When President Joe Biden dropped out of this year’s election and endorsed Harris to replace him, he trailed Trump in the national polling average from FiveThirtyEight. Harris now leads by 2.7 percent.
Democrats are holding their national convention this week in Chicago, where Harris herself and other prominent party figure are slated to speak. Trump, meanwhile, has been out on the campaign trail, visiting Pennsylvania this past Saturday where, for some reason, he began complaining that he was supposedly much “better looking” than the Democrat, meaning Harris.
