New polling from USA Today and a team at Suffolk University finds a lead for Democrats in generic ballot results, which means survey respondents were asked whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican in their local Congressional race this year (without pollsters specifying the names, which allows broad polling on the question that accommodates the many Congressional districts across the United States).
Democrats got 48 percent of the support on that question, with Republicans at 43 percent. Before these August numbers, the most recent polling from this same source on this same question found Republicans up by two percentage points. That earlier data came from June and surveyed registered voters, while in the more recent numbers, the survey pool was narrowed to likely voters.
One possible factor here is the undeniably impactful presidential campaign kicked off in July by Vice President Kamala Harris after President Joe Biden stepped aside from this year’s race for the White House amid questions about his advanced age. Harris promptly turned around Democratic fates from the lagging by the Biden campaign in some polling, and increasing — plus increasingly enthusiastic — support for the Democratic ticket in the presidential race could help spur greater support for Democrats in other elections in 2024.
And there are a lot of those! Though it happens every two years, every seat in the House is up for grabs, and — though it’s not captured by the generic ballot polling — there is also an assortment of closely watched and heavily contested Senate elections going before voters this year. Democrats are even trying to topple Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican, again. This time, state Democrats’ nominee is Colin Allred, who once played in the NFL and is now a Congressman in the state. Other Senate races are unfolding in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and beyond.
