In new polling by Outward Intelligence of likely voters, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is leading Republican pick Donald Trump at the national level, both with and without presidential contenders from outside the major parties included.
With just Harris and Trump named for respondents, Harris was in the lead by just under six percentage points. Adding candidates outside the major parties — including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who dropped out but will still be on the ballot in some areas, actually left Harris with a slightly larger lead. In that case, the Democrat’s leading margin passed six and a half percentage points.
Though presidential elections are not decided on a national level and instead play out on a state-by-state basis via the electoral college, the national results can still provide somewhat of an indication of the concurrent outcome in the electoral college. In 2020, when Democratic candidate Joe Biden won that year’s race for the White House, he led in the national popular vote by about four and a half percentage points. When Hillary Clinton won in the national popular vote in 2016 but lost the electoral college, her national lead was a couple of percentage points smaller.
Meanwhile, Election Day in the general election is just around the corner, and closely watched, highly targeted states include — again — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which both major party candidates are prioritizing for in-person visits. Harris recently participated in a Philadelphia interview with the National Association of Black Journalists, and Trump recently had an event in Michigan with ex-Trump administration official-turned-Arkansas Republican Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
