Amidst the Coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. is still preparing for a slew of elections this November that could hand Democrats control of the Senate for the first time in years, no matter what happens elsewhere. In a new report, POLITICO outlines the broad anxiety among Republican leaders like the team of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who are facing the fact that Democrats are gaining ground in more than enough races to nab Senate control post-November. These races include Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, whose races the Cook Political Report currently calls toss-ups, along with Montana, Kansas, Georgia, and Iowa, whose races the same source rates as only leaning Republican.
Democratic chances are boosted by strong fundraising. In every single one of the toss-up states, Democratic contenders outraised their Republican opponents in the first quarter of 2020 — although Republicans frequently ended up with more cash on-hand thanks to past accumulations. Still, Democrats have recently outraised Republicans in a full five additional races beyond those four most competitive ones.
As Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Lauren Passalacqua put it:
‘Democrats have put more states in play and have more paths to the majority with strong candidates, impressive campaign operations and a focus on what matters most to voters: affordable quality health care, lowering the cost of prescription drugs and economic security for working families — not corporate special interests.’
And that’s increasing the anxiety for Republicans. Steven Law, who POLITICO describes as “president of the super PAC Senate Leadership Fund and a top ally to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,” told the outlet:
‘The sense is that, no matter what else happens, we’ve got to hold the Senate majority. And it’s not a given. There’s just a broad front to defend, and it’s going to take a lot of resources and a lot of hard work to do it… the number of seats that we need to defend, versus the ones that they need to defend, makes it a taller order — and therefore takes a lot more resources to be able to be competitive.’
In fact, POLITICO adds, in a slew of states with Senate races unfolding this year, including Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Kentucky, “the GOP has already been outspent by millions from Democratic campaigns and outside groups.”
In the toss-up races (plus Iowa) alone, super PACs on both sides have collectively already reserved a staggering nearly $130 million in television ads. In North Carolina alone, the GOP has already reserved nearly $30 million in television ads compared to nearly $25 million on the Democratic side, leading the state’s former Republican Governor Pat McCrory to proclaim:
‘I anticipate the most expensive Senate race definitely in North Carolina history, and maybe in U.S. history.’
Many of the Democratic challengers are currently boosted by strong poll numbers. Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican challenger Martha McSally by an average of a staggering eight percent margin, and a similar pattern repeats elsewhere. Donald Trump’s own popularity could help drag down support for Republicans further down the ballot.
