President Donald Trump has, by all appearances, delusionally high opinions of himself. During a Thursday Oval Office interview with the New York Post, he suggested that he could win New York, which not a single Republican presidential candidate has won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump cited recent increases in crime as supposedly helpful for his aim of winning the state, although it’s entirely unclear that there’s any evidence whatsoever suggesting that anything, crime-related or not, could fuel a potential Trump victory in the state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by over 20 percent, and that was, of course, in a year when Dems lost many other places.
Nevertheless, Trump told the Post:
‘Over the last six months what’s happened is insane. It’s insane. So we’re going to try very hard to win New York and that will be the first time — is that since Ronald Reagan, I guess? Since Ronald Reagan. I will bring down taxes and I’ll make sure that New York City is a safe place. I mean, this is one of our cherished — this is a cherished diamond of this country. And we can’t let this happen to New York.’
It is important to note that, although rates of some crimes have recently increased in New York, current levels are still a far cry from the rates at which the same sorts of violent crimes were committed in New York City decades ago. Calling the current crime levels apocalyptic and using that characterization as a justification for pointlessly broad police action is not going to help the actual problems.
Trump, meanwhile, doesn’t entirely seem focused on legitimately trying to solve problems, real or imaginary. He seems motivated by political profiteering. He claimed to the Post that his campaign will “invest” in the state — although again, Hillary Clinton won it by over 20 percent in 2016 — and he said:
‘I’ll solve the crime problem. I’ll solve their tax problem. I’ll solve all their problems. Who would not vote for me? We’re going to look into SALT, we’re going to look into crime, we’re going to look into all of the things and solve the problems — of many problems that they have in New York.’
That’s where he goes with his claim that he’ll solve New York’s problems — to using his supposed solutions as leverage to pressure people to vote for him. His comment “who would not vote for me?” helps reveal, yet again, his staggering self-aggrandizement. He pathologically refuses to acknowledge the real problems of his administration’s policies.
Meanwhile, not only does Trump not have a legitimately high chance of winning New York in November, he also doesn’t have a particularly high chance of winning the country as a whole.
Besides his current over seven percent average losing margin to Joe Biden in national polls, electoral college estimates from sources like FiveThirtyEight and the Cook Political Report help reveal that the deck is stacked against Trump. Americans have now had almost four years to see the chaos of the Trump administration in action.