Updated Arizona Senate Poll Results Leave Republicans In Shock


In battleground states across the country, Republican Senate incumbents are struggling in the polls, losing or tied with their Democratic challengers. For the senator who now fills the late John McCain’s seat, the polls have been brutal, and they haven’t gotten any better as the election winds to a close in the last 27 days of voting.

McSally lost in a 2018 election to now senior senator Kristen Synema and was appointed to her seat, not elected, upon McCain’s untimely passing. It doesn’t appear as though McSally will fare any better in an election against Mark Kelly, her challenger and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ).

According to Morning Consult:

‘According to Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking conducted Sept. 22 through Oct. 1, Kelly leads McSally by 13 percentage points, 51 percent to 38 percent, among 1,048 likely voters in Arizona. While McSally’s campaign has pointed to internal numbers showing a tighter race, other public polls are generally in line with Morning Consult’s figures, showing Kelly in the lead and McSally underperforming President Donald Trump, who has been more competitive with Democratic nominee Joe Biden at the top of the ticket but still trails in most polls.’

So far in the 2020 election season, McSally has trailed Kelly consistently, as have many other staunch pro-Trump candidates. With the president trailing in some national polls by as much as 14 points and tied with his challenger, Joe Biden, in Arizona, the tide does not seem to be turning McSally’s way.

‘As is the case across much of the Senate battleground, the Democratic candidate has tracked closely with Biden’s support among Democrats and independents, while the Republican underperforms Trump among voters in the middle and the party’s base.’

Interestingly, McSally trails Kelly with women by a wide margin, and even Republicans don’t seem to like her. In a debate on Tuesday night, McSally had an embarrassingly bad performance against Kelly, which will likely drive her new poll numbers down even farther.

‘McSally trails Kelly by 12 points among independents. Among women, a key bloc in the suburbs of Maricopa County, Kelly has a 26-point lead over McSally, who hasn’t broken 40 percent among the demographic since tracking began in July.

‘She also is relatively weak among Republican voters, with only 79 percent saying they would vote for her if the election were held today.’