Democrats are suddenly shooting upward in the polls amidst an onslaught of fascist political moves from the GOP.
Highly regarded political strategist Simon Rosenberg, pulled together the latest polls to explain the transformation. He pulled out a stunning fact, that Donald Trump’s attempt to take the presidency involved “hundreds of GOP leaders and staff, including WH staff, senators, house members, the RNC,” and at least five state party leaders:
‘A reminder that the conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election involves hundreds of GOP leaders and staff, including top WH staff, Senators, House Members, the RNC and state party leaders in AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI. Scale of this betrayal has no precedent in US history.’
Rosenberg tweeted The Economist/YouGov weekly poll results showing Biden had Democrats’ 77 percent approval rating. He added that the Congressional Democrats were “running way ahead of fundamentals models:”
‘#NEW The Economist/YouGov weekly poll has Biden’s approval at 38% (-14 on net). 77% approve of Democrats. The generic congressional vote is D+3; 86D – 6R among Ds and 34 – 32 among Independents. Congressional Ds running way ahead of fundamentals models docs.cdn.yougov.com/0atxy0xx1u/eco ‘
Then, Rosenberg said that “conventional wisdom political analysis is out of synch:”
‘I agree with @JoeNBC. Conventional wisdom political analysis is out of synch with last several weeks of more positive Dem polling. A short thread: 1/’
But apparently, President Biden has not yet regained enough points in the polls for others to run on his coattails:
‘We are past the point where any serious analyst can use the Biden approval rating as their central way of describing what is happening in this election. ‘
Since polls have moved three to five points nationally, it becomes easier to discover “blue and purple states” shifting:
‘If the battleground has shifted 3-5 points nationally, it is possible for it to shifted even more in blue and purple states. Impact on House races could be SIgnificant. May take a while to know but sure looks like a whole new election.’ The
The Economist/YouGov poll noted what a serious danger the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) became when a super-majority of justices killed Roe and threatened contraception. It resulted in a four- to five-point gain for Democrats:
With this significant change in the Economist/YouGov data, the average of the 9 polls taken since Roe ended is: 45.4% Dem – 43.7% GOP, +1.7 Dem It’s now closer to a 4-5 pt swing towards the Dems. Please amplify this data, analysis. It matters. 5/
‘One big methodological note about our new poll this morning. YouGov found an error in their programming that affected the generic ballot in all of their polls since May 14. For some reason, it was only asked of respondents who had been asked before but not in the prior 3 months. twitter.com/gelliottmorris…’
Then, Rosenberg pointed out that the YouGov Poll found an error that began in mid-May. It found that pollsters asked interviewees who had been asked before as they should — but not in the previous three months:
‘One big methodological note about our new poll this morning. YouGov found an error in their programming that affected the generic ballot in all of their polls since May 14. For some reason, it was only asked of respondents who had been asked before but not in the prior 3 months.’
After SCOTUS shot down Roe, FiveThirtyEight which compiles polls, found the race has moved between three and five points in the Democrats’ direction:
‘There are now 9 post-Roe Congressional Generics on
Their average: 45.2 D/44.2 R – Dems +1. Without Rasmussen its +1.8. W/the 538 average at -2 to -2.5 last week this suggests the race has shifted 3-5 pts towards Democrats.’
And President Biden has begun putting some fire back into his stands supporting unions, at least the one in four American women who have had abortions, and those who care for them. That can only improve his numbers.
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