Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) has managed to widen his lead to a small margin of two percent over retired football player Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff race, according to a new poll by The Emerson College Polling-The Hill poll. Although Reverend Warnock won in the midterm election, it was by such a small margin, state law required the runoff vote.
The Emerson College Polling-The Hill poll discovered that Warnock held 49 percent of “very likely voters.” And 47 percent backed Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate. Four percent were undecided, but the margin of error meant a virtual tie.
Warnock has run four times in his short political life. Twice in the special election in 2020 against former Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and twice this election. Of course, the pastor of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s church has had to defeat his opponent via runoff elections in such close races.
Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said:
‘Warnock’s base lies with voters under 50 — a 55% majority support him for re-election — whereas Walker holds a similar 55% majority among voters over 50. The early vote breaks for Warnock by about 29 points, 63% to 34%, whereas those who have yet to cast their ballot break for Walker by eight points 52% to 44%.’
Undecided voters leaned toward Warnock, which gave him 51 percent of the vote and Walker 49 percent. Then likely voters were queried over who they thought would win, which put 57 percent for Warnock and only 43 percent who said Walker.
Kimball continued saying that the poll’s results fell within the margin of error:
‘Despite the ballot test being well within the poll’s margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters. About 1 in 5 Republicans expect their nominee to lose. This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win.’
The ever-popular Georgia Governor Brian Kemp was on the ballot in the midterm elections, which gave Walker a boost. Now, the ballot only includes Warnock and Walker.
This election is important, because it can give the Dems a majority without Vice President Kamala Harris coming in to break the tie. It also dampened Republican voters’ need to come out for Walker again.
So when does the Associated Press (AP) calls a race:
‘AP’s Decision Team has a wide range of tools at its disposal to analyze the state of a race. They include AP’s vote count, which it has conducted in every U.S. presidential election since 1848. In general elections and presidential primaries, the Decision Team also has access to data from AP VoteCast, our wide-ranging survey of the American electorate.’
The Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey occurred from November 28Â to 30, inclusive. There were 888 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-Â 3.2 percentage points.
Featured image is a screenshot via YouTube.
Christie writes Gloria Christie Reports & Three White Lions Substack newsletters and a Three White Lions podcast available on Apple, Spotify, etc. She is a political journalist for the liberal online newspaper The Bipartisan Report. Written in her own unique style with a twist of humor. Christie’s Mueller Report Adventures In Bite-Sizes a real-life compelling spy mystery (in progress). Find her here on Facebook. Or at Three White Lions her book on Amazon Kindle Vella and the Gloria Christie Three White Lions podcast on Apple, Spotify, etc.
