It really, really seems like Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona independent who was first elected as a Democrat, is likely on her way out of office, even if she decides to run for another term.
In federally available numbers it’s difficult not to take as a sign of faltering support, she raised just about $5,500 from small-dollar donors, meaning those whose donation totals remained at $200 or below, across the entirety of the first three months of this year. The exact total was $5,536.01. She raised just over $830,000 from individual donors outside that category, who it seems can give the maximum levels of support for both the primary and general election cycles roughly at once. Under federal rules, the max per election this time around is $3,300 if given by an individual.
A substantial portion of the donations she received were identified as from employees of investment companies like Blackstone and the Carlyle Group. In negotiations around the development of the landmark piece of legislation known as the Inflation Reduction Act, Sinema helped ensure the preservation of more favorable tax rules for certain additional income made by individuals working in private equity investments, even though it seems even common sense would dictate treating those earnings as more ordinary income for tax purposes. The idea of fairness in taxation has often been discussed, with President Joe Biden referencing large corporate entities that have skirted by with low or non-existent tax bills in key categories, but Sinema — when still a Democrat — clearly wasn’t impressed. The problem for Sinema is Blackstone employees who don’t live in Arizona can’t vote to send her back to office.
Her campaign also benefited from over a million bucks in transfers in the first quarter from the Sinema Leadership Fund, which is identified in records from the Federal Election Commission as a joint fundraising committee with the Sinema campaign and another political action committee participating. Unsurprisingly, small-dollar donations to that joint fundraising operation in the first quarter were also nearly non-existent, totaling just $402. The endeavor saw $1.36 million raised from sources passing $200 in their overall giving. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is running for the Democratic nomination for Sinema’s seat next year. Polling that’s measured Arizonans’ opinions on potential match-ups in next year’s general election has consistently shown Sinema losing.
