Special Election Results Show A 17 Percent Jump For Democrats As 2024 Approaches

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A special election for a state legislative seat in Wisconsin has ended with surprisingly promising results for the Democratic Party, though the party’s candidate didn’t actually win the position.

Still, Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, explained on Twitter that Democrats’ candidate — Bob Tatterson — outperformed expectations by nearly 17 percent, suggesting there is a groundswell of support for Democrats as 2024 approaches. The Republican candidate won by only about seven percent despite the contours of the district suggesting they’d have an advantage of 24 percent. “The AD24 special election results are in. 53.6 to 46.4,” Wikler wrote Tuesday. “An R +7.2 margin in a district gerrymandered to have an R+24 advantage. That’s a terrific showing for Bob Tatterson, @AssemblyDemsWI, and @gretaneubauer —and a big flashing red light for the GOP.”

Anecdotes of election results do not provide for an exact science in estimating how the next elections will turn out, but the outcomes seen around the country in the 2022 midterms were also generally surprising, particularly to those expecting a pro-Trump sweep. In state after state, candidates aligned with the former president and the iteration of the Republican Party that he represents lost in high-profile races for spots in the U.S. Senate and as governor. Democrats even expanded by a seat on their previous majority in the Senate, flipping a seat in Pennsylvania alongside their holds elsewhere in closely watched states like Nevada and Georgia.

In 2024, Democrats are expected to face an effectively steep climb across the map of Senate seats that will be up for grabs. Several posts currently held by members of the party will go before voters in states that Trump won by large margins in the 2020 presidential election, including Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Races expected to be close are also taking shape in states including Arizona and Nevada.