In recent polling from Marist College done at the national level, President Joe Biden led expected general election challenger Donald Trump by six percentage points among respondents who said they were “definitely voting in November’s election.” Biden nabbed 53 percent of the support in that subgroup, while Trump had 47 percent.
The leading margin for Biden of six percentage points improved upon his national lead from the 2020 presidential election. Although presidential elections are ultimately decided on a state-by-state basis via the electoral college rather than nationally, the results at the national level can still be a decent predictor of the actual winner. Among registered voters in general, Biden still led by three percent in the Marist polling, which was completed on April 18.
The polling reverses some widely reported findings of leads for Trump at the national level, although a significant share of the polling leads for the presumptive Republican nominee were quite small, making confident predictions difficult. Trump characteristically claims that he’s effectively soaring in the polls, which just isn’t accurate and hasn’t been accurate. The overall portrait of the race created by various polling is mixed.
Trump, meanwhile, is currently facing a criminal trial in Manhattan on allegations of falsifying business records in connection to hush money from before the 2016 elections and alleged ambitions of impacting that year’s presidential race, lifting — in prosecutors’ telling — the alleged acts to a more serious level. The idea is that the hush money for a woman named Stormy Daniels, who allegedly had an affair with Trump, stood to benefit Trump’s campaign for president that year.
None of Trump’s extensive courtroom challenges, both criminal and civil in nature, have significantly shaken the Republican support behind his current campaign to reclaim power. Biden and his team are both focusing on wins secured under Democratic leadership and characterizing Trump as a threat to democracy in the United States.
