New polling conducted by Emerson College in collaboration with The Hill and Nexstar suggests that Democrats will win five critical Senate elections happening this year. The polling, which was completed just before the end of April, found leads for current Democratic candidates in all five: Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
Some primaries that will formalize the candidate lists appearing in these general election contests are still in the future, but the Emerson polling that asked about potential match-ups went with candidates either well-known or already formally on their way to this November’s general election. Arizona’s Senate primary, for instance, isn’t until July, but the polling pitted expected Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego (currently a Congressman) against prominent, Trump-aligned Republican Kari Lake, finding Gallego ahead by two percent. Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent, recently announced that she wasn’t seeking another term, helping to clear the field.
In Nevada, the polling pitted incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) against two possibilities for a general election challenger… finding substantial leads for Rosen. She was ahead by 14 percent when pitted against Jeff Gunter, a former official in the Trump administration.
Polling always comes with caveats, but this data clearly suggests positive possibilities for Democrats as the party faces what looks like a tough electoral map on the Senate side in 2024. Some of these very states are known as electorally/politically close, and also on the ballot will be seats in states more outright Republican in their leanings, like Ohio and Montana, both of which currently have Democratic incumbents in the seats.
On the presidential election front, polling remains mixed, although the electoral college’s role in actually selecting presidents adds even more caveats to any such surveys. It’s clear, though, that the resounding success characteristically claimed by Trump isn’t what the polls from the race actually depict.
