Polls from across the United States seem to indicate that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is heading for a big win this November. Polls have Biden leading in many states where President Donald Trump won in 2016, including Texas, where new survey results from Public Policy Polling have Biden leading in the state by 2 percent. Biden had 48 percent of the support, while Trump had 46 percent, and 5 percent of respondents said that they were “not sure” who they’d support. That’s a thin leading margin for Biden, but it would be enough to flip the state into Democratic hands and thereby sweep a winning coalition away from the Republicans.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 2, 2020
The Texas race is definitely not set in stone — some polling data, including some from YouGov that was also released this week, has Trump in the lead. (In the YouGov data, Trump led in the state by 4 percent.) Yet, the numbers seem to make one thing abundantly clear — the state of Texas, while perhaps traditionally leaning Republican, seems in play ahead of the November election. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads in Texas polling by an average of a meager 1.2 percent. For most of the latter half of June, Trump’s average lead in the state was under 1 percent.
On average, Biden leads in national polls by 9.3 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. In a Monmouth University poll conducted in the last week of June, Biden led on the national level by a staggering 12 percent, which seems like more than enough to keep Trump from securing a winning margin in the electoral college. Biden also currently leads in states including Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida — all of which Trump won in 2016, in some cases by wildly small margins.
If Trump does poorly, he could drag down the chances of some of the rest of the Republican candidates on the ballot this November. Democrats are fighting to become the majority party in the U.S. Senate, and they could do it — currently Republican-held seats in states including Colorado, Arizona, Montana, North Carolina, and Maine are all rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. That’s a great set of chances for Democrats.