New 2020 Election Prediction Model Shows Big Multi-Day Surge


According to the Cook Political Report, which is a decades-old, nonpartisan election forecasting organization, Democratic electoral prospects are majorly brightening across the country as the November elections approach. Specifically, on Friday, the organization updated their forecasts for 20 individual House races around the country, and every single one of the updates were in favor of Democrats. The ratings changes include highlights like three Republican incumbents whose seats are now rated as “toss-ups” heading into November. Meanwhile, six other Republican incumbents had their seats changed from “safe Republican” to just “likely Republican,” which “is essentially an anti-Trump wave watch list,” the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman explains.

Wasserman commented:

‘I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction… for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. Because the erosion in President Trump’s support is disproportionately occurring among college-educated whites, it’s especially acute in suburban House districts with high numbers of them – and these @CookPolitical rating changes reflect that.’

Currently, of course, Democrats are the majority in the U.S. House, so they’re starting out with an advantage. Republicans would need a net gain of 21 seats in order to become the majority in the U.S. House following the 2020 elections, but it’s just unclear where they’re going to get those seats. The Cook Political Report currently rates a full 15 currently Democrat-held seats as toss-ups — but they also rate 10 currently GOP-held seats as toss-ups too. Additionally, it’s not as though poll numbers have suggested some kind of looming Republican wave — the trend line in political sentiment has been clearly established as leaning towards Democrats.

The Cook Political Report also rates Senate races, and ahead of the 2020 elections, they call a full five currently GOP-held seats toss-ups, including seats across the country, from Montana to Maine. There’s one currently Democrat-held seat — that of Doug Jones in Alabama — which is rated as leaning Republican, but not a single other Democrat-held seats falls in toss-up or GOP-tinted territory. They also maintain electoral college projections, and according to the organization, Democrats are clearly leading in the presidential race. There are a full 279 electoral votes that are at least “leaning” Democratic, according to the organization. Only 187 electoral votes are at least “leaning” Republican — far below the level needed to win, of course.

In polling, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden currently leads by an average of 8.6 percent on the national level, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden also leads in states including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and others, according to the same source. Trump won every one of those four states in 2016, suggesting that his winning coalition is most definitely in jeopardy heading into the November elections — and, by all appearances, he’s dragging the chances of other Republican candidates down with him.

Trump and his allies have consistently tried to deny the facts of their sinking political chances, but the facts remain definitively in place anyway.