Based on the 2016 match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, as well as the 2018 primaries and early polls, the swing states of 2020 are expected to be Arizona, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Without a majority of the electoral college votes in those states, neither candidate can pull off a win.
The race begins in Ohio, which has traditionally been a swing state in every election. No Democrat has won the presidential election without Ohio since the 1960s when John F. Kennedy won without carrying Ohio. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by eight points over Clinton, but polls in the state show Biden ahead by four points, just outside the margin of error. If Biden pulls off a win in Ohio, the implications for the rest of election night may be significant.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 29, 2020
Although Ohio is not a swing state, the states on the list that are swing states almost invariably fall to Biden. In Maine, Biden is up by 11. In North Carolina, he leads by three and in Minnesota, Biden is up by 10 percentage points. Biden leads in New Hampshire by 13 and Pennsylvania by seven. Biden is also beating Trump in Arizona by four points and in Wisconsin by six. In Nebraska, the election’s outcome will most likely depend on the state’s 2nd District, where Biden leads Trump by seven points.
Trump is currently not carrying a single swing state and even some of the states that should not be in play, states where Trump won big in 2016, are leaning toward Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
It may be hard to believe President Trump could dig an even deeper electoral hole for himself, but he has.
Polling now shows Florida and Pennsylvania leaning Democrat Joe Biden's way, and Georgia as a toss-up. https://t.co/lVydWXweKP
— NPR (@NPR) August 3, 2020
The hole Trump dug for himself with his incompetent response to a global pandemic, his subsequent crashing of the economy, and his contributions toward the growing civil unrest in the country has deepened significantly as the race goes on. According to NPR:
‘A record and widening majority of Americans disapprove of the job he’s doing when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic; he gets poor scores on race relations; he’s seen a suburban erosion despite efforts to win over suburban voters with fear; and all that has led to a worsened outlook for Trump against Democrat Joe Biden in the presidential election.’
‘As a result, in the past month and a half, the latest NPR analysis of the Electoral College has several states shifting in Biden’s favor, and he now has a 297-170 advantage over Trump with exactly three months to go until Election Day.’
new CNN state polls:
Biden 52%, Trump 40%
Biden 51%, Trump 46%
Biden 49%, Trump 45%
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) July 26, 2020
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