Democrats Become Statistical Favorites To Keep Senate Majority


A forecast for the midterm elections from an elections data organization called Decision Desk HQ projects that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate.

That’s a change from a previous projection from the organization, although they’ve consistently guessed the battle for control to be close. “Our model currently predicts a 56.8% chance of a Democratic majority,” a statement on the Decision Desk HQ website said as of Wednesday afternoon. “The model has moved +7.3% D over the last day, +1.7% D over the last week, and +12.9% D over the last month.” Those are substantial positive movements in the Democrats’ direction. On Twitter, the organization outlined key factors for the improving chances for Democrats in the Senate model. “Democrats are FAVORED to win the U.S. Senate,” as Decision Desk HQ explained. “Several new generic ballot polls, as well as race-specific polls in PA and GA, have shifted our Senate model to give Democrats a 56.8% chance of holding their majority.”

Decision Desk HQ is a leading organization in its field, having operated for about a decade. Major media organizations like Buzzfeed and Vox used its data for reporting results of the 2020 elections. As for this year’s midterms, Decision Desk HQ finds a mean seat projection in its simulated outcomes of 50-50, meaning the chamber would remain evenly divided, with Democrats in control only because of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking role. The site projects positive — but not insurmountable — chances for Democratic success in Georgia and Pennsylvania Senate races. In Georgia, Decision Desk HQ gives incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock an over 60 percent chance of winning re-election. In Pennsylvania, the site projects Democratic contender and current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has an over 63 percent chance of winning against Trump-backed opponent Mehmet Oz, aka Dr. Oz.

That was current on Wednesday. In other key Senate races that are on the ballot this year in Ohio and North Carolina, Decision Desk HQ projects Republicans have a better chance of success. Recent polling of voters’ attitudes in the midterm elections found Republicans faltering: Morning Consult survey data put Democrats ahead of Republicans by 11 percent among independents when they were asked which party’s contender they’d back in this year’s Congressional elections. The average for Morning Consult polling across July put Democrats 8 percent ahead with independents. Democrats also led among registered voters in the new poll. Meanwhile, another attention-grabbing recent poll of voters’ attitudes related to the midterm elections found Democrats ahead with voters over 65 and represented an apparent gain of 15 percentage points for Dems in recent months.

Democrats are also significantly leading Republicans in fundraising. Campaigns for individual candidates like Fetterman and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio are significantly out-raising their Republican challengers, and across the party, small-dollar donations on Democrats’ ActBlue rose significantly last month, hitting a total of over $64 million raised. That means the total amount raised through small-dollar donations on ActBlue in the month of June is more than twice the total from small-dollar donations on the comparable Republican site, known as WinRed, throughout the same time period.