Raphael Warnock Defeats Walker In Latest GA Runoff Polling

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Raphael Warnock is three percentage points ahead of Republican Herschel Walker in one of the final polls to be released before Election Day in Georgia’s ongoing Senate runoff.

The poll is from InsiderAdvantage and a Georgia Fox station and found Warnock with 51 percent, while Walker had 48 percent. The survey also once again found Warnock leading by a huge margin among Black voters, some 81 percent of whom picked the Democrat. Recently released CNN polling found Warnock’s support with Black voters even higher, at 96 percent. Data available ahead of Election Day, which is Tuesday, showed Black voters at a higher share of the early vote than their shares from this juncture before the election in several past high-profile Georgia elections. This race went to a second round of voting because neither candidate passed 50 percent the first time, as legally required. Now, nobody else is on the ballot, meaning somebody mathematically has to hit 50 percent.

Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, is seeking a full term of six years after finishing the two-year stint to which he was elected in very early 2021, and former President Barack Obama recently stopped by Georgia once again to campaign on the pastor-turned-political leader’s behalf. Walker, who has a background in football, has distinguished himself in part through his oddity — including incessant misrepresentations of his background. He has claimed he worked in law enforcement, although there’s no record of a serious position. He has seemingly taken credit for businesses that weren’t his, characterized himself as a divinely appointed “warrior,” responded to concerns about insulin prices by saying diabetic people should eat better, and has become predictably aggressive with journalists. It’s not even clear he lives in Georgia, considering the recency of him claiming a homestead exemption on a Texas residence.

Among polling cataloged by FiveThirtyEight of the runoff, one showed Walker with a slight lead, another found a tie — and every other survey showed Warnock with a lead, mostly in the lower single-digits. The race will not determine control of the Senate because Democrats already added a seat to their majority, but it will help the party boost its position heading into the next elections when Senate control will once again be up for grabs.