Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) might be well on her way out of power.
Polling consistently shows her losing to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) — or at least losing overall — in the 2024 general election, should she choose to run for another term. Gallego has announced a Democratic primary campaign, and the state party has approved a resolution in favor of that primary’s eventual winner rather than sticking with Sinema — a show of opposition not exactly surprising considering Sinema’s high unpopularity, particularly among the Democrats who initially elected her. In new polling conducted by Public Policy Polling and sponsored by the Gallego Senate campaign, half of Arizonans indicated an unfavorable view of the incumbent Senator, while only 27 percent of respondents shared a favorable view of Sinema.
And in hypothetical general election match-ups, Sinema lost — by a lot. In theory, it’s not difficult to imagine that Sinema’s parting move in national politics could be making life more difficult for Gallego, should her potential campaign attract voters who’d otherwise support the likely Democratic nominee. In a candidate list including Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (who hasn’t announced a campaign but might run), and Sinema, the former Democrat had just 14 percent of the support. In that scenario, Gallego had 42 percent in this round of polling, while Lake had 35 percent.
Lake, who was the unsuccessful GOP nominee for governor in Arizona in last year’s midterms, is still challenging that defeat in court, although she’s mostly just still losing and definitely not coming anywhere close to the kind of court victory she wants, which is toppling the election win seen by Democrat Katie Hobbs. Reaching the state Supreme Court, Lake’s election challenge was referred back to a lower court for limited further proceedings, but such wasn’t on the grounds of any suddenly emerging evidence actually proving her case.
Her claims have centered in part on claimed mishandling of the 2022 elections in Maricopa County, which is Arizona’s largest by population and has been a frequent target of right-wing election liars. Among other things, she has brazenly misrepresented what certain data from that county actually showed and relied, at least in part, on what was essentially unproven hearsay about supposed issues with what’s known as the chain of custody for ballots.
Image: Gage Skidmore/ Creative Commons
