New polling from Arizona by Emerson College finds the state’s Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) losing the general election next year in multiple possibilities for the list of candidates who will actually be on the ballot, assuming she joins the field.
The survey, done August 2 through August 4, included Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) as the expected Democratic nominee and two options for the Republican, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and Brian Wright, a businessman whose campaign website contains typographical errors on the front page. The Emerson pollsters presented these groupings of candidates to prospective voters both with and without Sinema. From the four total, in neither of the scenarios in which Sinema was included did she lead. With Lamb on the hypothetical ballot, Gallego was at 36 percent. With Wright, who though an officially announced candidate is polling in the single digits, Gallego was at 37 percent — leading again.
Sinema was originally elected as a member of the Democratic Party, though she has since made a highly publicized break with the party, though she still caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate and often votes in line with the party’s interests. She has also sometimes derailed Democratic ambitions, from her insistence amid negotiations for the Inflation Reduction Act on protecting financial opportunities for workers in private equity to her support for the filibuster rules in the Senate, which have crippled the ability of the Democratic majority in the chamber to enact change in areas from voting rights to abortion. She even opposed raising the federal minimum wage in a closely watched vote.
Around the country, other closely watched Senate races will include contests in Montana, Nevada, and Ohio. In California, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is also leaving office, with several Democratic contenders from the state having already announced campaigns to succeed her. The state’s primary system, in which the top two finishers from a central list of candidates advance to the general election, means the November race for Feinstein’s seat could feature two Democrats.
