New Poll Shows Democrats Turning Back GOP’s Gains In Key State

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A poll conducted last month by a firm called Global Strategy Group finds a potential Democratic contender in Florida’s upcoming Senate race faring well against incumbent Republican Rick Scott, who would need to go before voters next year to secure another term of six years. Scott is a former governor of the state who was among the few Senators to vote against fully certifying President Joe Biden’s win from the 2020 election in Congress.

The survey measured prospective voters’ opinions of Scott and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former Democratic Congresswoman from the southern parts of the state. The pollsters said that respondents were provided with positive and negative arguments around each figure, and following participants receiving these details, Mucarsel-Powell was one percentage point ahead of Scott statewide, with 44 percent of the support to Scott’s 43 percent. Those figures were calculated to reflect a statewide pool of voters with a seven point lean towards Republicans in party registration terms. Assuming turnout in line instead with 2020 and 2016, Mucarsel-Powell was four percentage points past Scott after participants were provided those contrasting arguments.

Scott was also viewed unfavorably by almost a majority of respondents, with 48 percent sharing such a perspective. Only 40 percent said they viewed the incumbent Republican favorably, putting Scott some nine percent below where Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) found himself in 2021 in terms of the margin between those with favorable and unfavorable views.

Scott already has other opposition, and Mucarsel-Powell, though she remains politically active, has not announced a campaign as of yet. Those already in the race include Democrat Phil Ehr. Ehr ran an unsuccessful Congressional campaign in the northern parts of the state against Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). The outcome of the 2024 presidential race could be expected to impact contests elsewhere on next year’s ballot, and surveys measuring prospective voters’ opinions in the case of a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden find the two candidates relatively close — not Trump dramatically leading, as he characteristically (falsely) claims.

Data from Global Strategy Group was flagged and shared earlier by the outlet Florida Politics.