Recent polling conducted by frequent pollster YouGov in collaboration with CBS News found a massive majority of young people in support of President Joe Biden heading into the 2024 election. Young people here means individuals under the age of 30 (ending at 18, when Americans are first able to vote). A full 65 percent from that group backed Biden.
Support for Biden progressively decreased as the age groups extended upward, with Donald Trump ahead among those 65 and up by 16 percent. Trump also led among independents in this polling, and the overall numbers, reflecting the total responses of survey participants deemed likely voters, had Trump leading nationally by a point — meaning the two leading contenders were essentially right in line with each other in the final results from this survey. Both Trump and Biden are generally expected to win their respective political party’s presidential nomination, with none of their primary challengers maintaining huge levels of support in polling.
Trump has never before won the popular vote nationally, so it seems difficult — when considering historical precedent — to imagine him somehow managing such a win in 2024, but the overall portrait derived from polling shows the two candidates still close in a manner similar to the lead-up to 2020. The criminal charges that Trump is facing across four jurisdictions have not substantially shaken his support from inside the Republican Party as the GOP’s primary moves forward.
Going forward, it’s simply unclear at this stage how several lawsuits Constitutionally challenging Trump’s eligibility for the presidency will end. In the meantime, some have also suggested Trump could face potential detention if he keeps up his antagonistic public rhetoric around some of his charges, which it’s worried could intimidate witnesses or prejudice the jury pool with arguments made outside the justice system. Prosecutors have sought restrictions on public comments from the ex-president. “I think eventually, they might have to,” former prosecutor Jill Wine-Banks said, discussing the possibility of authorities sending Trump to custody. “What other options are there? Financial penalties haven’t worked. He re-defamed E. Jean Carroll right after a $5 million judgment.”