Any narrative asserting that President Joe Biden isn’t delivering substantive results for Americans — of which many people are, in fact, aware — is false. In other words, the idea of Biden running a so-called basement campaign, which was falsely raised during the 2020 contest and has been slowly re-emerging now, still fails.
Recent polling from YouGov and CBS News found that almost all of the likely voters at least leaning towards Biden over Donald Trump in next year’s general election in the presidential race say they believe conditions are better with Biden. Asked if thinking “things are better under Biden” was among reasons for their support, 85 percent of Biden’s backers answered affirmatively. The portions were substantially similar across demographic groups, though only 76 percent of the independents supporting Biden went with the idea.
The results from respondents in general on the question of which candidate they’d support assuming Biden and Trump face each other again were more mixed. Among those deemed likely voters, Trump led nationally by a single percentage point — not enough to make much of a conclusive determination about the status of the race other than that Biden and Trump appear to be close, contrary to the latter’s characteristically repeated claims. Biden led among groups including women and young people, meaning survey respondents under the age of 30. He was a remarkable 30 percentage points ahead of Trump with the latter group, showcasing a clear presidential preference.
Trump and Biden both have primary challengers, but surveys do not reveal any clear indication that any of those intraparty opponents will be coming anywhere close to actually making a dent. Trump also continues facing challenges to his eligibility, including a recent push from state legislators in California for intervention by the state’s attorney general to help secure a swift resolution to the question in the state’s court system. Considering the number of delegates that state sends to parties’ presidential nominating conventions, the scenario in which Trump doesn’t appear on the primary ballot could substantially impact his campaign for Republicans’ nomination.