New data from Susquehanna Polling & Research shows a lead for President Joe Biden against Donald Trump in Pennsylvania amid an expected rematch later this year.
In the January polling, Biden got 46.8 percent of the support, while Trump had 39.3 percent. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but the state flipped to Biden’s column four years later, helping provide the Democrat a lead in the electoral college that actually directly mirrored the total won by Trump four years prior. Democrats have seen some success in more recent statewide elections in Pennsylvania. In the 2022 midterms, the party’s members won both the state’s governor’s post and a Senate seat that was up for grabs following the retirement of a Republican. Trump had explicitly endorsed the Republican nominees in both of these races.
In this polling, “other” was at just 5.6 percent, far below the levels of support obtained by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. when he is presented by name to respondents in some polling. Recent presidential elections establish a precedent of candidates outside the two major parties finishing with very low levels of support, and when balloting is actually conducted this fall, there won’t be the same prodding towards potentially backing Kennedy found in polling where he’s actively mentioned to prospective voters. His name’ll just be printed in what’s always a long list, assuming he’s alongside Trump and Biden in a paper or electronic context at all. All of this builds the idea he’ll actually fall fairly short of some expectations.
Trump continues to allege without evidence that criminal proceedings he is facing are politically motivated. The federal and state cases have progressed without any clear indications of direct participation by Biden or his political team and are instead the work of generally career prosecutors whose activities have been subject to established, procedural protections in the justice system with wide-ranging opportunities for Trump to pursue grievances. One court filing in a federal case said that prosecutors would quit if there were the kind of political involvement that Trump was alleging.
