New polling from Quinnipiac University shows a national lead for President Joe Biden in an expected rematch with Donald Trump of six percentage points, which is above the national margin in the popular vote by which Biden won in 2020. Besides breaking with recent polling done by other teams, Biden’s margin in this Qunnipiac data also surpasses his lead in Quinnipiac polling from December, when he was up only by one.
These numbers come specifically from questions pitting just Trump and Biden against each other rather than naming other candidates. In recent elections, presidential contenders outside the major parties have consistently received actually low levels of support in the final tallies, suggesting that for most voters, the race is effectively between the Democrat and the Republican. The new data reflects responses by registered voters.
Individual high points for Biden in the new Quinnipiac numbers include his results with women. Fifty-eight percent from the subgroup backed him, while only 36 percent picked Trump.
Biden, meanwhile, also recently got promising survey results from Pennsylvania, where data originating with a Franklin & Marshall College team showed the incumbent leading Trump in the state by one percent in another one-on-one match-up. With other candidates named, Biden’s lead increased to five percent.
Pennsylvania was among the highest-profile swing states of the 2020 elections, moving from a Trump win in 2016 to Biden’s column four years later — and extensive attempts by the ex-president and his allies to undercut that later Biden victory in Pennsylvania. Rudy Giuliani, since suspended in two jurisdictions from practicing law, even joined a Pennsylvania case, and the state’s Trump allies produced a slate of sham electoral votes contradicting Biden’s victory.
Democrats have recently seen success in other statewide elections in Pennsylvania, including races in 2022 for governor and Senate, the latter of which saw a Democrat replace a Republican who retired. Trump, meanwhile, falsely characterizes the current crop of polling as showing him with a consistently resounding lead. The portrait is actually mixed.
