Though there are always going to be important caveats coming with any polling — especially on account of some recent history in which it’s been off-base, Donald Trump and his ilk are again trying to make it a big deal heading into the 2024 presidential election. Trump consistently claims resounding success in the polls, which just isn’t true. It’s actually rather mixed.
Some of the latest polling from Michigan — done by YouGov in collaboration with CBS News — found multiple leads in the state, which was central in the 2020 presidential race, for Joe Biden. When respondents were asked about a one-on-one match-up between Biden and Trump, the incumbent actually had an outright majority of the support, finishing with 51 percent. When candidates outside the major parties including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Jill Stein were included, Biden still led, with 45 percent of the support to 43 percent for Trump. These respondents were “likely voters.”
The same set of polling found thin leads for Trump in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of which were also high-profile in the context of the 2020 presidential race. Biden swept all three of the states that year, though by generally small margins. Trump was victorious across all three states four years prior, when facing Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The situation is roughly similar in national polling, with a mixed bag of results that vary in terms of who’s leading. Other recent polling by YouGov found a tie between Biden and Trump among registered voters pooled at the national level, with both nabbing 43 percent. Biden led among some of the population subgroups from that polling, including registered voters who were either women or from the ages of 18 through 29. As is routine, the polling presented a series of groupings, differentiating respondents on the basis of sex/gender separately from age, etc.
