Donald Trump began his 2020 presidential campaign officially this week to news that even traditionally conservative news outlets are calling for anyone but Trump to win in the next election. Although he insists he’s leading in every poll and in every swing state, the truth is that even in states where he won in 2016, his victory is far from guaranteed.
It’s amazing how this stable genius, this master of modern media, has managed to get all the poll numbers that have him seriously down—Quinnipiac, Fox, his campaign internals—dozens of times more attention than they otherwise would have received. https://t.co/IgRMsMniGl
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) June 18, 2019
In Florida, where Trump officially kicked off his campaign, several Democrats are leading Trump in the polls. Only two are well ahead of the margin of error at this early stage, although there are still 17 months left to go and the Democratic field will narrow considerably before the primaries end.
Quinnipiac polls indicate that:
‘In an early look at the 2020 presidential race in Florida, former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 – 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
‘Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders leads President Trump 48 – 42 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Matchups between Trump and other leading Democratic contenders are too close to call.’
.@JohnBerman: President Trump "seems to be saying that any polling with him trailing the Democratic pack is fake."#KeepingThemHonest, "That is precisely what a number of recent polls show, most notably, his own." https://t.co/MISlnrU5cd pic.twitter.com/hIL5trk6Jv
— CNN (@CNN) June 18, 2019
Despite Trump’s insistance that he has the highest poll numbers in his presidential history, at least four other Democratic candidates are neck-in-neck with the president, falling within the margin of error. Trump’s schoolyard bullies, lies, and personal attacks against the wide field of Democratic candidates are not working to boost his numbers against any of them.
‘Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 47 percent to Trump’s 43 percent;
‘California Sen. Kamala Harris at 45 percent to Trump’s 44 percent;
‘Former Texas U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 45 percent to Trump’s 44 percent;
’44 percent for South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg to 43 percent for Trump.’
Trump is now suggesting Fox News polls are rigged against him and that's he's actually winning in every single swing state. And people still think he'll accept the results of next year's election if he loses? https://t.co/dRLFv8L8dp
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 18, 2019
For the record, there are only 11 states (not 17, as Trump tweeted) that are considered swing states, or battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. In Florida, Trump is certainly not ahead, and gender, racial, and party divisions show that Trump isn’t winning over any new voters since 2016, either.
‘There are deep gender and racial divisions in the Biden-Trump matchup: Biden leads 58 – 34 percent among women, as men go 49 percent for Trump and 42 percent for Biden. Trump leads 52 – 42 percent among white voters, while Biden leads 79 – 9 percent among black voters and 57 – 32 percent among Hispanic voters.
‘Republicans back Trump 90 – 7 percent. Biden leads 91 – 3 percent among Democrats and 54 – 32 percent among independent voters.’
Unemployment is rising in eight Trump states, and polls show some have turned on him https://t.co/QA7CFyK79g
— Stop Trump ? (@StopTrump2020) June 21, 2019