The first Democratic debates had a few breakout stars who were expected to see an impact in their standings, and frontrunners who didn’t stand out amongst their competitors were expected to slip. The first post-debate Morning Consult polls have been released, and results were surprising.
#New National @MorningConsult Post Debate Poll:
de Blasio 1%
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 30, 2019
Biden remains the frontrunner, although his numbers have dropped dramatically from 40 percent at his peak down to 33 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has remained steady following the debates, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) are now tied.
‘On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election.Â Every Monday, weâ€™ll update this pageÂ with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to howÂ the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up.’
Name recognition for some candidates have increased, as well, which plays a significant role in voters’ decisions. At this point in the 2008 presidential elections, Hillary Clinton was far ahead of Barack Obama, but name recognition can change dramatically over the course of an election season as candidates continue to make public appearances and gain supporters. Andrew Yang, for instance, had his biggest fundraising day ever following the debate, even higher than on the day that he launched his campaign.
While more voters have unfavorable opinions of the two top frontrunners, a few of the less recognizable names, like Beto O’Rourke and Mayor Bill DeBlasio, have higher unfavorable positions than others in their categories.
Most surprisingly, former Vice President Joe Biden’s supporters named their second choice as Sen. Sanders, and Sanders’ supporters most often named their second choice as Biden. Harris and Warren, who are tied in the polls, also saw this same crossover. Mayor Pete Buttigieg supporters also chose Sen. Harris as their second choice. Considering the vast policy differences between Biden and Sanders, this crossover support was one of the most surprising revelations from the polls.
While it is still early in the race for 2020, Biden and Sanders remain at the top of the pack, but Warren and Harris look to be prepared to offer a real challenge after the first debates. Other candidates, like Buttigieg and Booker, saw substantial increases in support following the debates, as well.
Featured image screenshot via YouTube