If history is any guide, Democrats can expect their very slim majority in Congress to slip away in 2022 since the party in power nearly always loses in the first midterm after a presidential election. If the election of Donald Trump taught us anything, however, it’s that history is no guide in modern politics.
Some of House Democrats’ campaign fundraising stars, such as California Rep. Katie Porter, skewed the average. Porter hauled in $2.7 million in April through June, and held $12.9 million in the bank as of June 30. https://t.co/c6M5uP1r37
— Roll Call (@rollcall) July 17, 2021
Just over six months after taking office in the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives, the two major political parties are gearing up for the next elections, still 16 months away. So far, Democrats are outraging Republicans by a significant margin, according to FEC filings.
According to Roll Call:
‘House Democrats facing potentially competitive reelection races in 2022 hold a financial advantage compared with their possibly at-risk GOP colleagues, as candidates and party committees gear up for next year’s midterm battle for control of the chamber.
‘The average Democratic incumbent in districts targeted by Republicans reported nearly $2 million in cash on hand at June 30, according to second-quarter disclosures to the Federal Election Commission. House GOP incumbents in districts that Democrats are targeting hold, on average, $750,000, according to a CQ Roll Call analysis of FEC filings.’
NEW: Senate map tilting toward Democrats, as incumbents pile up cash as GOP faces multiple retirements in swing states and muddy primaries.
But history of midterms foreboding for party in power.
The 2022 landscape 15 months out —> https://t.co/oShxaTDchF
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) July 17, 2021
Democrats outraised Republicans in House raises in 2020, as well, and still lost sears, so these early numbers may not be as indicative of a sure blue win as they seem. However, the right is still relying on their new leader, Donald Trump, whose future hangs in the balance in courtrooms and law filings in more than one state in the country.
‘Republicans, meanwhile, have used their party’s most recent president, Trump, to solicit donations. They’ve also put their opposition to Democratic proposals to increase taxes and to overhaul voting and campaign finance laws front and center in fundraising pitches. GOP candidates have also focused their messaging on rising inflation as well as on hot-button fights over how racism is taught in schools and in other institutions; opposition to teachers unions; and government-imposed restrictions aimed at stopping the spread of COVID-19.’
Democrats have five good pickup opp'ties in the Senate in 2022: Florida, NC, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In all five, top contenders have made it clear their opposition to the filibuster will be a feature of their campaign. 2022 is the most crucial midterm election ever.
— Duty To Warn 🔉 (@duty2warn) June 28, 2021
Relying on the popularity of Donald Trump may not be their best option, but for the moment, it’s their only option. It’s difficult to fear-monger around an average, white, male president with decades of experience in politics, and Biden hasn’t had any major stumbles thus far no matter how hard the GOP tries to invent one for him. Meanwhile, the left is focused on issues that matter to American families like healthcare, student loan debt, and fair wages.
DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Mahoney said that:
‘While Minority Leader Kevin Mcarthy and House Republicans prioritize extremism and lies, Democrats in Congress are working each day to continue uplifting the American people. Our strong fundraising success shows American voters are rejecting Republican extremism and know just how critical a Democratic House Majority is to protecting our democracy and delivering for American families.’
Democrats and Republicans are already courting the suburban vote, a crucial voting bloc that soured on Donald Trump, tilted to Joe Biden and now holds the key to the second half of the president’s term. https://t.co/4hlPqNO6Rq
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) July 10, 2021