New Fox polling measuring voters’ attitudes heading into the midterm elections shows Democrats leading among key groups of women. Specifically, the polling asked respondents which party’s contender they’d pick in upcoming Congressional elections.
In the polling, conducted from August 6 to August 9, Democrats got 45 percent of the support from women in general, while Republicans got 39 percent. In Fox polling conducted from the end of April to the beginning of May, Republicans actually led among women by a single percentage point, with 43 percent of the support, compared to 42 percent for Democrats. Among white women with a college degree, Democrats had 54 percent of the support in the new polling, while Republicans got 38 percent. In the same demographic group from the April-May polling, Democrats had 48 percent of the support, while Republicans nabbed 40 percent. Thus, the Democratic leading margin in that group grew by eight percentage points within a few months.
Among white women in general, along with white women without a college degree, Republicans led in the new poll as they did in the April-May numbers — although the GOP margin with white women shrunk by eight percentage points. The GOP’s leading margin also decreased by eight percentage points among white women without a degree. Among suburban women (the targets of an infamous, pre-2020 election plea from Trump for the group to “like” him), Dems’ leading margin grew by nine percentage points from the April-May poll to the August numbers. In the more recent survey, Dems had 50 percent of the support of suburban women, while Republicans got 34 percent. Among non-white women, Democrats’ leading margin grew by 10 percentage points between the two sets of poll numbers. The portrait depicted by these figures seems fairly conclusive: Democrats are gaining rhetorical ground at a pace making clear that they’ve not somehow already lost the midterms.
Among overall respondents in the new Fox polling, Democrats were tied with Republicans, with both groups getting 41 percent of the support. A full 12 percent of overall respondents in the Fox numbers said they were undecided or didn’t know, while six percent picked “other.” In individual Senate races, polling consistently shows Democratic gains in key areas. One recent survey out of Arizona found Sen. Mark Kelly (D) a full 14 percentage points ahead of GOP challenger and Trump endorsement-recipient Blake Masters in Kelly’s ongoing race for re-election. Democratic Senate candidates are benefiting from consistently formidable fundraising hauls. In Florida, for instance, likely general election contender Rep. Val Demings (D) is consistently out-raising Sen. Marco Rubio (R), whose seat she’s hoping to win. Polling shows the Florida race to be close: two recent sets of numbers had Demings and Rubio tied.