Among likely voters, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is 14 percentage points ahead of Republican general election challenger and Trump endorsement-recipient Blake Masters in a new Center Street PAC poll.
Kelly nabbed 54 percent of the support, while Masters got just 40 percent. In the poll, 7 percent identified themselves as undecided. (Rounding of poll results sometimes leads to totals slightly over 100.) Masters’s level of support among Republicans was lower than one might expect to find. A full 73 percent went for him — but 14 percent backed Kelly. For comparison, only 5 percent of Democrats indicated support for Masters, meaning it seems like Masters is losing the support of members of his own party at a rate significantly ahead of Kelly’s. Questions about respondents’ favorable views for particular candidates also reveal Masters hasn’t locked down the support of the entire Arizona GOP base, or something close to it. A full 51 percent of Republicans said they view Masters “Somewhat” or “Very” favorably, while 24 percent of Republicans indicated an unfavorable view of Masters.
Presumably, the other Republicans indicated they didn’t have an opinion for whatever reason, including holding low information about the candidate. Just 12 percent of Dems indicated an unfavorable view of Kelly, according to the Center Street PAC polling. In terms of putting Kelly substantially ahead of Masters, this new Center Street PAC poll is not an outlier. As of Saturday afternoon, Kelly led Masters by double-digits in the weighted average from the elections data and analysis site FiveThirtyEight of polls in the Arizona Senate race. Going solely off polls, FiveThirtyEight gave Kelly a 91-in-100 chance of winning the Arizona Senate race as of Saturday afternoon — although polls aren’t a perfect predictor of elections.
Another Senate race on the ballot this year where Dems have bright chances is Pennsylvania, where Democratic pick John Fetterman — Pennsylvania’s current lieutenant governor — also repeatedly led his Republican opponent by double-digits in recent polling. According to data available July 20, Kelly raised a whopping total of almost $23 million from small-dollar donors this cycle — and the combined total of three of the top contenders in the GOP primary to challenge him (including Masters) was under $2 million, as reported on this site. Democratic control of the Senate is allowing the accomplishment of critical ambitions such as the recently passed legislative initiative known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains the largest single investment by the federal government in fighting climate change in history. The bill will also eventually allow Medicare to negotiate the costs of certain prescription drugs, among other policy items.