According to recently released polling from The Wall Street Journal, Democrats are surging among independents as the midterm elections approach.
A lot is, as they say, on the ballot this year. If Republicans win control of the House, a GOP-led chamber could potentially pass oppressive proposals, such as new restrictions at the national level on abortion — although whether Republicans also control the Senate and how receptive any potential GOP majority in that chamber might prove towards more extreme House initiatives would certainly impact how far House GOP’ers can actually get. Increased levels of Republican control across Congress could also allow for further threats to the stability of the democratic process, if another movement emerges pushing for Congress to block the certification of a presidential election outcome and current legal standards making such a blockade possible and more accessible remain in place. One proposal in the Senate would increase the number of members from both chambers who must back an objection to particular electoral votes before that objection moves to a vote.
Democrats led Republicans by three percent in an August poll from The Wall Street Journal asking respondents which party’s candidate they would more likely back in this year’s Congressional elections. In a March survey from the Journal, Republicans had 46 percent of the support, while Democrats nabbed just 41 percent, leaving a five percent leading margin for the GOP. Now, Democrats got 47 percent of the overall support in the Journal poll, and Republicans ended with just 44 percent. The change is much more dramatic among independent voters. In the new numbers, Dems were ahead with the group by three percent. In March, Republicans led by 12 percent, meaning the Journal’s polling data recorded a swing of 15 percentage points in favor of the Dems. Among women in the group of independent voters participating in the polling, the swing was 20 percent.
Another huge change was recorded with Hispanic women, among whom Dems gained by 15 percentage points from March to August, per the Journal. Among women identified as white and suburban, Democrats led by 12 percent in the new Congressional polling numbers from the Journal. Notably, the new polling from the Journal also asked respondents which contender they would support if Biden and Trump once again faced off in the upcoming presidential race, and Biden actually led by six percentage points, with 50 percent of the support compared to Trump’s 44 percent. (Those totals include respondents who merely said they would “probably” — rather than definitely — back one or the other.) In March, the Journal says that the two presidential contenders were tied when respondents were asked the same question.